2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Roll Roons]

Strange that they actually removed Northfield from Craig's district. Trying to make the 1st competitive again?

Isn't MN-01 competitive as is?

It went for Trump by 10 points last year, but Hagedorn is a pretty weak incumbent who significantly underperformed. He probably would have lost if a left-wing third party candidate hadn't been on the ballot.

[Roll Roons]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

[Roll Roons]

MN-02 seems like it would be an easy flip for the GOP. Biden +7.2, but Craig underperformed Biden significantly, as did other MSP suburban Democrats. In a wave environment, that's tossup at minimum.

TBF, I think Craig's margin was lower than it should have been because there was a Weed Party candidate on the ballot. But yeah, MN-02 is definitely a tossup this year.

[Roll Roons]

Dems would probably have won MN-01 in 2018 with this map.

Possibly even 2020. Hagedorn is an incredibly weak incumbent but the Weed Party saved him.

This map also confirms that MN-03 will not be coming back to the GOP for the foreseeable future.

[Roll Roons]

I've never been a huge fan of using proportionality in redistricting. Huge shifts can and do happen, and a proportionally fair map at the start of one decade may not be one by the end of it.