NH-SEN GOP primary 2022: Who would win?

[Roll Roons]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

[Roll Roons]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not account for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations) , their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

Generally agree (I also wouldn’t underestimate Democratic prospects in GA even if Republicans hold the seat this year), but I honestly think an upset in one of VT (Scott)/MD (Hogan) or a special election fluke à la MA 2010/AL 2017 in some other state is more likely than Republicans flipping CO and OR (Wyden's not losing) at this point.

Keep an eye on IL if Duckworth becomes VP.