Does anyone else see this year's OK race as being kind of similar to the LA race from 2015? The candidates are a moderate Dem who's a good fit for the state and a flawed GOPer (even if Stitt is not quite as weak as Vitter), with the outgoing Republican incumbent extremely unpopular. I could definitely see Edmondson pulling it off in the end.
Alabama, South Carolina, Maryland, Oregon, Alaska, Oklahoma (that one should be obvious, though), South Dakota.
I obviously agree, but I was wondering if you had an opinion on why Arkansas is so much safer than Oklahoma. I agree with this assessment, of course, but it seems strange on the surface. Oklahoma, if anything, has an even more inherent advantage for the GOP than Arkansas based on demographics, and I have never seen you too keen on emphasizing CANDIDATE QUALITY. 
The current incumbent in OK (Mary Fallin) is terribly unpopular (according to Morning Consult, her approval rating is only 19%), and the Republican candidate there is far-right. Hutchinson, on the other hand, is one of the most popular governors in the country, and the two polls taken so far have shown him ahead by 39 and 35 points, respectively. I’d argue that AR is the safest R seat this year.
