Florida lurching right in the next election feels practically assured right now, and I can easily see Colorado moving left again by a not-dissimilar amount. Kansas I don’t think will move much at all (I may have been inclined to think otherwise had Kelly won by a greater margin or even just 50+% of the overall vote like Evers did), and New York I think will shift a little right, but nowhere near enough to make it competitive.
Still not sure where all this huge swing potential for Utah is being seen. Despite Trump clearly being a poor fit for the state, he managed a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 - one of only seven states where he did improve on the R’s victory/defeat margin. The state is still full of rigid religious/social conservatives who regardless of anything, are going to be holding their noses and voting for a bad R over any D.
Trump ran a generic R campaign in 2020 and Utah is shifting left fast. The only reason Utah swung right in 2020 was because McMullin wasn't on the ballot.
McMullin won't be on the ballot in 2024 either, it'll be Biden. Even though McMullin basically ran as a D, having that "independent " label makes a difference.
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