What swing state or light blue state has the best long term trends for the GOP?

[Cyrusman]

We are not counting Ohio, Iowa, or Florida as a swing state

[Cyrusman]

Wisconsin and Michigan.  Hardworkin' men of the wood who love these new kinds of Republicans.  Democrats will have to make up for it by acquiring Montana, Utah, etc.

I’m not too sure about MI. Republicans seem to be struggling there after their surprise 2016. These white working class people aren’t voting the way they do in Ohio or even rural PA. Even John James who is arguably the strongest canidate on the MI GOP bench lost two strait senate elections against pretty mediocre Dem incumbents. 

[Cyrusman]

• New Hampshire
• Minnesota

LOL @New Hampshire. New Mexico is more likely to flip

Personally, I think NH is still an unpredictable swing state. I mean, Bush won it in 2000. Sure, he only won it by a point on a night when he won Fairfax County VA by an identical margin and only lost VT by a single-digit margin, but he did win it. Mitt Romney, Scott Brown, Donald Trump, Kelly Ayotte, and Don Bolduc only lost there because they were all bad fits for the state. A good fit will carry the state, just wait and see.

How was Mitt Romney a bad fit for NH? To me he is tailor made for that state. Fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and articulate.