Election models megathread

[Cyrusman]

To summarize:

-They think the GCB will change after Labor Day due to polls shifting from registered voters to likely voters and undecideds breaking republican

-They still see an enthusiasm gap in some polls

-They think even a red ripple instead of a wave is plenty to flip the house

Individual races:

- CO-8 and NC-13 lean republican because they’re the type of seats that sway with the environment and they seem to think that Budd and O’Dea will win these seats and carry them across the finish line

- IN-1 tossup because R’s actually have some fundraising here, #candidate quality, and #trends

- GA-2 likely D because of no #candidate quality and also Warnock and Abrams may drag him across the finish line

-A bunch of other marginal R seats switching to likely by assuming the environment won’t be good enough for them to be competitive

I guess I haven’t paid attention to this in previous years but is that normal where after Labor Day all polls go from RV to LV?

[Cyrusman]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

The thing I don’t get is when I read these polls abortion still ranks fairly low on most voters minds of importance WAY behind the economy. Also I would imagine any single issue abortion voters would’ve already voted D, so what else could be behind a shift towards the democrats?

[Cyrusman]

Why do we  keep getting registered voter polls? When will all the LV polls roll in?