2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Cyrusman]

You guys are seriously crazy if you really think RFK running independently hurts Trump more than it hurts Biden. Trump has got the conspiratorial loon vote absolutely sewn up.

I'm skeptical that this would substantially hurt Trump if is Trump is indeed the nominee.

But it seems to RFK Jr. could seriously damage a non-Trump GOP nominee, since it would give the hardcore Trumpists an obvious alternative to vote for if they are alienated by the fact that Trump didn't get the nomination.

All Trump has to do is bash him for 1 month and get all his twitter influencers who previously gave RKF credit to bash him as well, and that will do it as far as crossover support for RKF to Trump. Thats how they started the demise of Desantis. Those people will listen and believe whatever Trump says.

[Cyrusman]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

Zero chance of this. She knows it would benefit Trump.

[Cyrusman]

Maybe Liz Cheney for No-Labels … she’s an anti-Trump Republican who’s available, and they shouldn’t have issues finding a Democrat to be on the ticket with her: she endorsed Democrats in 2022 when they faced election-denial Republicans, and she was appointed by Pelosi to be on the Jan 6 House investigatory committee. In her new book, Cheney praised Pelosi (and bashed McCarthy). If she says yes, Cheney would work for No Labels

Zero chance of this. She knows it would benefit Trump.

I would figure it would hurt Trump, taking votes away from him (ie - the moderate /old school / KarlRove wing of the GOP party)

If this was Nikki Haley, sure, but at this point I think Liz Cheney mainly only appeals to moderate Dems who support her for resisting Trump and a very small fraction of the GOP, such as the Adam Kinzinger's of the world.

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1780984855490130150/photo/1

Well that is not ideal...

You have to work under the assumption that all the swing states RFK will make the ballot. (I'm not saying all states...I'm very dubious whether he can make Texas and California) RFK has the money and most swing states aren't THAT hard to get on if you have the money. (By contrast, I expect Jill Stein to fail to make NV, GA, and maybe AZ because she DOESN'T have the money)

The Natural Law Party was deciding between giving their access to him or to Cornel West. Unlike RFK, West will probably NOT be on the ballot almost anywhere. If Natural Law Party had given access to West, it'd be RFK AND West making it on in MI, rather than this way where it's only RFK.

Cornel West isn't really trying for ballot access petitions, so getting given access by minor parties is going to be his only way on ballots.

Pretty sure Stein and the green party already qualified in AZ.

https://www.gp.org/azgp_makes_a_comeback