Yikes, not great for JBE. Still a Toss-Up, but if he can't poll above 50% consistently in November, I'd definitely give the edge to Rispone.
Tbf Louisiana doesn't seem to have the same polling phenomena other solid R states have where Democrats only get the percentage they're polling and it seems it is effectively Republican plus undecided. In 2014 Landrieu got 3% more than her RCP average for the jungle primary and then the polls overestimated Cassidy's margin for the runoff by 8.3% (and underestimated Landrieu's vote share by 7.2%). I think the polls will be pretty accurate for this election then, rather than for races like KY where I expect the polls will underrate Bevin by quite a few points.
that seems to be exactly what happened in the primary though, in fact JBE got 46.6% which is square in the middle from Trafalgar's 48% and JMC's 45% (Oct 5-8 poll). Not to mention that JMC had him at 47% (Oct 3-5).
There's also the chance that some of the 48% JMC has him at currently will switch once they go through a couple weeks more ad-attacks and a Trump rally.
