Would John Kasich have won Oregon?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Notions like these are why I regard Kasich to be the most overrated Presidential candidate of all time.

 The most plausible scenario that would lead to a Kasich vs Clinton race involves Trump and Ted choosing not to run in the first place, which would leave Jeb being the initial frontrunner due to name recognition only to falter after he, Kasich, Rubio, and Rand duke it out. Kasich would have to amp-up his right-wing bonafides to win the nomination, especially given the fact that Jeb and Rubio would have bigger war chests and Rand would have a more loyal following, which would seriously endanger Kasich's reputation as a 'reasonable' Republican.  It's possible he also alienates quite a few Randites in the process, leading to them opting to stay home or vote for Gary Johnson in the general. Keep in mind that in this scenario, Rubio and Paul have better chances at winning the nomination than Kasich.

In the general election he'd try to pivot back to the center but I don't think he'd react well to criticism and mudslinging. He'd probably get his own "binders full of women" and "47%" type scandals and bungle them. The map ends up exactly like 2012 except for Ohio...and honestly, maybe he even loses that AND North Carolina.

Charisma matters, name recognition matters, special traits matter like being the 'first black President' or the 'first female President' or the 'first openly socialist President' or the 'first President to have not come from a political or military background,' especially over the past ten years.

The only way I see Kasich winning is if 2016 plays out in such a way that anti-Hillary fervor is extremely high to the point where third party leftist candidates spoil things (more votes to Jill Stein? Bernie deciding to run as an independent because he figures that stopping a milquetoast like John Kasich isn't much of a risk?).