I’m more curious why he was considered doomed to defeat in 1948 when the economy was good and we weren’t in Korea yet. Was it just Democratic fatigue and/or the fact that Truman lacked Roosevelt’s charisma?
Well it had been nearly 20 years of total New Deal dominance and change was inevitable. The prairies had swung back firmly in the Republican column, Dewey was a moderate who could win the big states in the northeast and even a few rust belt states like Ohio (which he won in 1944) and it was seen as likely he'd do well there. He even traded Michigan and Wisconsin in 1944 and 1948. Add the Dixiecrat revolt and you were taking away basically any guaranteed states because the Democratic Party was so historically tied to the south. So in so many words Truman was basically screwed on every front. 25,000 votes the other way in California and Ohio and the race goes to the House of Representatives
Trump winning 2016 was a pretty big upset. There is no denying it but you will NEVER see anything like 1948 again. This would've been like asking "How does Biden win without California and New York?" and you KNOW they won't vote for him. So Biden goes and pulls Florida, Texas and Ohio out of his ass and maintains his landslide. Or you know for a FACT Trump isn't winning Texas or Florida so ol boy just says " it" and keeps his 2016 map and wins with flipping Minnesota, Virginia and Colorado.
