Is Minnesota trending Republican?

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And then you also have instances like Amy Klobuchar winning the election with the biggest margin in any senate race since WWII.

Or the fact that the Republicans lost like 38 seats in the state house in the past 3 elections despite "trending Republican"

I do believe the state was trending towards the Republicans because the exurbs were strongly Republican and they were the fastest growing areas while the DFL strongholds in the urban centers and northern Minnesota were not growing.

The strong shift towards the DFL in the inner ring suburbs over the past few elections has been pretty strong, though, and has made up the bulk of the major gains for the DFL in the state house and senate.  While places like Carver county and the exurbs like Lakeville or Farmington are still pretty Republican, places like Bloomington, Edina, and especially the eastern suburbs are much friendlier to the DFL than they were in the past... (Edina was a Republican stronghold, though decidedly of the moderate type).

Southern Minnesota is also trending towards the DFL while the northern part of the state, which had briefly entertained some Republicans, has fully switched back to their DFL roots.

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Also, you have to look at how other states have really trended Democrat over the past 20 years.  The Northeast and California, which were traditionally Republican, have made a full swing to teh Democrats... while Minnesota had already made this swing back in the 30s and 40s.

I have no doubt Minnesota will continue to be a reliable state for the Democrats for a long time.  It's just that other regions of the country have "caught up".

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The lukewarm swings were mostly in areas that was one of the few parts of the country where McCain was spending more.

It probably influenced things a little, yes.

And then you also have instances like Amy Klobuchar winning the election with the biggest margin in any senate race since WWII.

Irrelevant (for the question at hand, that is. Though telling of the state).

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Irrelevant (for the question at hand, that is. Though telling of the state).

Also, you have to look at how other states have really trended Democrat over the past 20 years.  The Northeast and California, which were traditionally Republican, have made a full swing to teh Democrats... while Minnesota had already made this swing back in the 30s and 40s.

I have no doubt Minnesota will continue to be a reliable state for the Democrats for a long time.  It's just that other regions of the country have "caught up".

That's all trends and state-by-state comparisons are about, though.

The whole basis of this thread is on a state-by-state comparison.  It isn't about actual numbers of votes.

If we're just going to decide that Minnesota is trending Republican based on the rank of margin by state, it's safe to use the argument that other states simply made a more dramatic and faster swing from the Republicans to the Democrats, pushing Minnesota further back as more states make the swing.

Minnesota really can't be compared to other states, except maybe Wisconsin, because we have 1) much higher voter turnout (the highest in the nation), 2) A more polarized voting population than average, and 3)  A unique coalition of rural/urban/inner suburban DFLers vs. Suburban/Exurban central Minnesota Republicans.

Perhaps the weak swing to Obama was a combination of relatively fewer new voters compared to other states (because we already had very high turnout) and the fact that John McCain far outspent Obama in the state while also holding his convention here.

Also, Republicans had a good reason to go out and vote in this state:  to vote against Al Franken.  That also played a role:  A very close, competitive senate race.

I also agree that some of the trend was relative success.  We spend 35 years way ahead of the rest of the country, near or at number 1.  People tend to vote Republican when they are doing well.  That would explain why northern Minnesota was trending towards the Republicans... because they were doing well financially and the focus was on social issues.  But since 2004 that trend has reversed completely.. and northern Minnesota is safer for the DFL than it has been in quite a long time.