Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

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So Obama will take PA by seven points, right?

Eight if you wanna get technical

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I fail to see why these factors, if they are real, aren't being picked up on in any of the polls out there. You'd think there'd be at least one somewhere along the line that agreed with you.

So Obama will take PA by seven points, right?

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

I think there's a pretty good chance of him winning it by 5-7 points. If he does 5 points better than Kerry nationally, which I think he will, he'll most likely see a 3-5 point improvement in PA also.

Now if McCain does 3 or more points better than Bush nationally, then yes he'll probably carry PA. So if you're predicting a 5 point McCain win, then a prediction of PA for McCain is reasonable.

If Obama does 5 points better than Kerry nationally, I'd see Pennsylvania doing 1 or 2 points better than Kerry.

The coalition that allows Democrats to win in PA are not the "perfect" combination.  There are too many older, blue collar whites that are not the most informed, but are very willing to vote... as long as it's not for that Brack Oba..wha? guy.

Barack will outperform Kerry in the south, plains, west, and Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota.

McCain will outperform Kerry in the entire Northeast and the upper south.

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Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

I'm not saying that Obama's going to win PA in a blowout, but come on, can you honestly say that you wouldn't be pretty shocked if McCain carried the state?

Yeah, I would be shocked... but Pennsylvania should not be taken for granted at all.  Neither should Michigan.

Obama is really going to have to hit hard in PA, OH, and MI.  PA and MI are must wins for him and OH would put him over the top.

It's good that he has established a presence in North Dakota and Montana... and he very well could carry Montana... but let's weigh electoral politics here.

McCain is putting us on the defensive in PA and MI while we're putting him on the defensive in NM, CO, NV, VA, and IA.

We can win without Ohio... without PA?  Not a chance.