Peak oil a thing of the past

[Ban my account ffs!]

Natural oceanic temperature cycles have a large influence on drought frequency in the U.S.

The two biggest drivers here are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.

The AMO has two phases:  Positive and Negative

Positive AMO:  Warmer than normal water in the Atlantic north of the equator.
     Effects:  More rain in Florida, less rain in the Plains/Southeast.  Increased hurricane development.

Negative AMO:  Cooler than normal water in the Atlantic.
    Effects:  Less rain in Florida, more in the plains/southeast.  Decreased hurricane development.


The PDO has two phases:  Positive and Negative

Positive PDO:  Colder than normal water in the northern Pacific.  Warmer than normal water over the equator.  This enhances El-Nino conditions and stifles La-Nina conditions.
      Effects:  More rain over the southwest and southeast.  Warmer winters in the north.  Drought in the Pacific Northwest.

Negative PDO:  Warm water in the northern Pacific.  Cooler than normal water over the equator.  This enhances La-Nina development and stifles El-Nino.
      Effects:  More rain in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast and the Ohio Valley.  Summer droughts are more common in the plains, but winter precipitation increases in the north.


These oscillations don't change together, but they both have their effects at the same time.

Below is a good picture that illustrates drought frequency around the country when the two oscillations are in different phases:




Below are the changes in the two oscillations.  Look at the map above and then think of the years that your area has had bad droughts and check with the indexes below:

1925-1945:  +PDO, +AMO (Dust bowl all through the plains)
1945-1962:  -PDO, +AMO  (Drought in the '50s in the central plains)
1962-1976:  -PDO, -AMO  (Winters in the Northeast/Midwest nasty)
1977-1994:  +PDO, -AMO  (Higher precip over the southwest.  High river levels in SW during '80s)
1995-1999:  +PDO, +AMO
1999-present -PDO, +AMO 

So, we're currently in a mode that was last seen from 1945-1962.  It is no surprise that the pattern that is currently affecting us is very similar to 1949 and 1955.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Did you mean to post that in a different thread, Snowguy? Because it has nothing to do with peak oil.

No, I figured since claiming that the south and midwest would become deserts, I'd post information about drought frequency across the U.S.

And weather has just about everything to do with peak oil, because fuel demands invariably rise and fall with temperature fluctuations and droughts.

But I do agree, it does have little to do with the topic at hand.

[Ban my account ffs!]

$137 a barrel oil is a symptom of peak oil. Too bad no one paid attention years ago when liberals were talking about peak oil.

Too bad liberals blocked increased domestic production such as ANWR.

Too bad conservatives blocked taxes on record oil profits in order to provide relief to consumers.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Too bad liberals blocked increased domestic production such as ANWR.

And off the California coast, and in the Gulf...

Too bad conservatives blocked taxes on record oil profits in order to provide relief to consumers.

Which wouldn't provide relief to consumers.  But hey, if we think those companies are BAD, let's PUNISH them, right?

I never said hte oil companies were inherently bad.  I just think it is fair to use the record profits they are making at the price of a declining economy and hurting Americans to provide relief both in the short and longer term... perhaps offsetting the amount of revenue with a cut in the federal gas tax...