Hurricane season has begun... still no leader for FEMA or NOAA

[Ban my account ffs!]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The botched response to Katrina was when the tide really began to turn against Bush. Trump better hope this hurricane season is a mild one.

Some in the meteorological community are worried at the look of the weather patterns so far this year.  They bear a resemblance to other years when there were major hurricane strikes on the U.S.

A "Major Hurricane" is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

The last major hurricanes hitting the U.S. were the following:

1992 - Andrew (Cat 5)
1995 - Opal (Cat 3)
1996 - Fran (Cat 3)
1999 - Bret (Cat 3, sparsely populated area of TX)
2004 - Charley (Cat 4)
2004 - Ivan (Cat 3)
2004 - Jeanne (Cat 3)
2005 - Dennis (Cat 3)
2005 - Katrina (Cat 3)
2005 - Rita (Cat 3)
2005 - Wilma (Cat 3)

We've gone an unprecedented 11 hurricane seasons without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. It's unbelievable.

Plus, nowadays, run of the mill common storms like Isaac 2012 prompt CNN full-blown over-coverage and over-hype in the post-Katrina world.

That's an unusually good point comma naso. Still, wouldn't you agree that even a category 2 storm can cause tremendous destruction and human hardship requiring leadership from FEMA and the NOAA?

Even more scary, since it is an unprecedented string of 11 straight hurricane Seasons without a cat 3 or higher storm, aren't we kind of pushing our luck here?

While there are larger trends that change thing up a little, the chances for a major hurricane hitting the US are basically the same every year. The idea that we're due for a major one (which I how I'm reading your question) is an example of gambler's fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Another point to consider is that given how long it's been, the media will be in frenzy mode. This could help Trump if the storm isn't damaging, or if the government does respond well. On the flip side, a FEMA and public that haven't had a major storm in over a decade could be woefully unprepared, making the results worse even before any hype from the media.

(His actual contribution to the outcome will be ultimately irrelevant, unless he really puts his foot in his mouth. Which is quite possible with Trump.)

Statistics don't work like this with tropical storm formation.  There isn't "the same chance year after year"... the chance of tropical storm formation increases substantially, for example, when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is in its positive phase which it entered around 1995 and peaked around 2010.

Papers have shown that tropical storm landfalls in the southeast U.S. increase or decrease substantially based on the mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has a pretty well proven link to solar activity. 

Then the Pacific ocean has a big impact too... when we have El Nino conditions, westerly winds in the upper troposphere pick up and rip the tops off of thunderstorms in the Caribbean and across the Atlantic basin, hindering storm formation.  During La Nina conditions, those winds slow down.  SOmetimes so much so that storms don't curve up towards the U.S. but instead just plow westward into central America... sometimes crossing into the Pacific and becoming a storm over there.

Bringing up the gamblers fallacy was just ridiculous.  Naso knows more about this subject than you do.  Just accept that and move on.