His accelerated model was too pessimistic in Minnesota and Maryland, while his linear model was too pessimistic in Washington and Maine. So clearly not rock solid in terms of predictive ability.
Assuming SCOTUS doesn't legalize it, I could see California and Oregon legalizing it by Proposition in 2014, and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota (again), and Montana in 2016.
A bill legalizing gay marriage is already being considered by the state senate, and will surely be taken up in the house. I don't see any reason we won't have gay marriage by memorial day.
