2020 census

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When Minnesota loses its 8th seat, I think the courts are likely to combine Mpls/St. Paul into one district while maintaining 3 rural districts and 3 suburban districts.  It seems the most logical choice.  

Such a divide would make the new rural districts more GOP friendly while making the suburban districts significantly more DFL friendly as they absorb established DFL friendly suburbs currently included in districts 4 and 5.

In such a setup, it is likely that there would no longer be a district made up like the 6th, with mostly exurban and rural areas in central Minnesota.  Instead, the 6th would be divided into the two northern rural districts and one of the suburban districts.

The NW rural district would likely shift to the GOP while the NE district would remain DFL-friendly, but less so.  The southern district would gobble up some GOP friendly areas, but as southern MN trends Dem, this probably wouldn't change anything.

One of the suburban districts would likely shift to the DFL.. resulting in a 4-3 DFL delegation instead of a 5-3 DFL delegation.  

In the end, you'd have 2 DFL friendly rural districts and one GOP district... 1 DFL lock urban district, and 1 GOP friendly suburban district with 2 swing suburban districts (one probably friendlier to the DFl than the other).. the delegation would likely switch from 4-3 DFL to 5-2 DFL and back over time.. with a 4-3 GOP edge only in wave years.

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In terms of a neutral map, I found it a lot easier to draw a map where Minneapolis and St. Paul are in different districts. I had an eastern Hennepin district (Minneapolis plus some surrounding suburbs) and a Ramsey-Washington district. That left MN-03 as a Western Hennepin-Anoka district, which would have narrowly supported McCain in 2008. MN-02 would stay pretty much the same, also narrowly supporting McCain in 2008. MN-01 would remain a Southern MN district, but it would add what is now the Southern portion of MN-07.

I'll admit that I wasn't too satisfied with the remaining two districts. MN-08 (which would be renumbered as MN-06) keeps all of the Iron Range and virtually all of its current territory. It might be somewhat controversial, but I also gave it the Northern part of MN-07 that would extend the district to the ND border. The remainder became MN-07. (As you can see, MN-06 would be axed entirely.) Altogether, this map would result it in a 4-3 DFL delegation unless Peterson could survive in a considerably more Republican district.

I'd be happy to share it if anyone's interested.

Peterson is a bluedog Democrat, and every Republican challenger he's had has held nearly the same positions but they'd supposedly implement them more gooder.

But I would guess he'll retire before then... and MN-7 could easily go GOP in its current form, let alone in a more GOP friendly form.

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A conservative Dem could win in the 7th district you proposed above.  St. Cloud is DFL friendly and even the areas surrounding St. Cloud do elect DFLers now and then.  Also, the areas you've added to the 1st (areas along the MN River) are fairly split down the middle.

Such a map could easily be 5-2 DFL if a conservative DFLer runs in the 7th.  In fact, none of the districts would be a shoo-in for the GOP.  The 2nd and 3rd (green and purple) would favor the GOP, but the chances of a Bachmann-esque candidate winning would be nil.  The current 6th is really the only setup that favors Bachmann (exurban areas and the adjacent rural areas of central MN).

I should point out that while the current 7th favors GOP presidential candidates, DFLers do quite well on the state level, especially the northern third and the area near the Minnesota River. (which represents the bulk of the agricultural areas)

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Wright County is not a suburban county.  There are a few small exurbs in the fringes closest to the Mississippi and Hennepin County... but that region of Hennepin County is still undeveloped.  Rogers is still a standalone exurb, and Dayton and Corcoran are pretty much undeveloped.  You have to drive a ways into Hennepin even along I-94 before you reach the true boundary of urban growth (in Maple Grove)... which occurs just before the I-94/694/494 split.

It will be quite a long while before the continuous urban conglomeration reaches Wright County.  Certainly not by 2020 and probably not by 2030.  Also keep in mind that two of the fastest growing exurbs in Wright County, Albertville and Otsego, are included in a suburban district on his map.

The same goes for Sherburne.  While there has been rapid growth in Elk River on the very southern fringe of the county, it is unlikely that the county will see further rapid suburbanization in the next decade. And Elk River is really the only exurb in the county.  A good amount of the growth in Sherburne is taking place near St. Cloud, which is a separate "metro" not affiliated with the Twin Cities... and is the regional capital of central Minnesota.  If lefty's 7th district were to drop the western fringe along the ND/SD border and add some areas on the southwest fringes of his 6th district, it'd be a truly "Central Minnesota" district as that region is traditionally GOP-friendly and German Catholic.  The western fringe near the Dakotas is instead more agricultural (crop growing rather than dairy like central MN) and Scandinavian protestant.

You're right that the Red River Valley shouldn't be split... though a perfect "community of interest" map would lump the Minnesota river valley in with the Red River Valley as both regions have more in common than with other adjacent regions.  The current 7th district does this nicely. 

If we keep two northern districts and are going along the lines of agricultural vs. tourism/mining/timber/etc., then the new 6th would extend west of its current location to encompass all of Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Clearwater, and Hubbard Counties while the 7th would eat into central MN and gobble up St. Cloud and areas of SW MN.

It's pretty much a done deal that eliminating the 8th seat will deprive Bachmann of her seat.  She's the one that is not like the others... as her district is largely exurban and is already the leftovers that don't fit into the other 7 districts.  Her district will be the one that will be split among the rural northern districts and an eastern suburban/urban district.

It's not about gerrymandering her out of congress.  Keeping her while losing a congressional seat would require a gerrymander of the first order.

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That map would create 5 safe DFL seats with 1 lean DFL, and only one safe GOP seat.  Me likey   But my fellow Minnesotans who happen to be Republican might disagree.

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I think ND's population would have to increase by 80% or more to get a second district. The oil boom is not increasing population of that magnitude.

Yeah... even the rosiest projections would grow ND's population by about 20-25% by 2020.. and that would be incredible for them.

They won't be getting a 2nd seat any time soon.