2011 White Christmas forecast thread

[Ban my account ffs!]

How about you give a probability for Bemidji, Minnesota? 

The average chance for a white Christmas here is 95%.  It looks like a 5% year this year (I guess if the pathetic half inch of snow we have doesn't melt before Christmas.. unlikely... then it could technically be a white Christmas)

[Ban my account ffs!]

I give Bemidji, Minnesota a 5% chance.

Also, I'm using the National Weather Service's definition of 1" of snow on the ground regardless of if it fell on Christmas Day as my definition.

Oh, I think that should be the real definition.. snow on the ground on Christmas.  The chances of snow falling on Christmas are much much lower for any given place...

Christmas 2009 was awesome.. a huge snowstorm arrived mid-day on Christmas Eve day and lasted until the 27th... it made it feel so Christmasy. 

In any case, as long as it's not warm.  There's nothing more depressing than a warm, sunny, snowless brown Christmas day in my opinion.  Sorry Australia!

[Ban my account ffs!]

]I know I won't have a White Christmas, and I never will unless I move someplace else.

It could happen.  Stranger things have happened meteorologically.

Nah.  We never get the sustained cold that would be needed beforehand to let the stuff stick until January.  While a Christmas flurry could conceivably happen here, a White Christmas with frozen precipitation on the ground cannot happen in the Midlands. (Midlands of South Carolina I clarify for our British brethren.)

Way back in the day such things were not unheard of.  I believe it was the winter of 1783/84 in which New Jersey had 3-4 feet of snow on the ground for several months and the Mississippi River froze all the way to New Orleans.  Granted that followed a blistering hot summer in which the sun was hardly visible because of a nasty sulfurous volcanic eruption in Iceland... but places that almost never see white Christmases were probably seeing white Halloweens that year.