WI-Marquette: Biden +3%

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Outlier. Trump is gonna win WI

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Don't believe these #s. Trump is going to win WI.

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Don't believe these #s. Trump is going to win WI.

You think Trump is gonna win every swing state and win the popular vote by like 5%, you just repeat the same thing over and over again and it's getting old

No I don't. I think the popular vote will be D+1 to R+2

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I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

I don't think Biden is going to take this state for granted as Hillary did.  He knows this state will be tough and looks to be Ground Zero to win the election.

Just cause he doesn't take the state for granted means nothing. Biden like Hillary is a ridiculously flawed candidate who will be toxic among WWC voters based on his positions on TPP, NAFTA, globalization and his Iraq war vote. Biden literally is the swamp. Indisputable which is why I think Bernie is a better fit for WI and MI than Biden. Biden's senility issues will be icing on the cake for Trump

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I'm skeptical. I want to believe it. I want Trump to lose but if you look at the polls from 2016, this company had Hillary Clinton up by 6 with 1 week to go before the election.

I don't think Biden is going to take this state for granted as Hillary did.  He knows this state will be tough and looks to be Ground Zero to win the election.

Just cause he doesn't take the state for granted means nothing. Biden like Hillary is a ridiculously flawed candidate who will be toxic among WWC voters based on his positions on TPP, NAFTA, globalization and his Iraq war vote. Biden literally is the swamp. Indisputable.

Your arrogance is astounding.  

"Indisputable"?  This simply isn't true; Biden stirs up nowhere near the visceral dislike that Hillary did among some voters.  If you don't see this, you're being willfully blind.  (And yes, I personally know some union WWC voters in Wisconsin who are examples of this; they voted for Johnson in 2016 because they couldn't stomach Hillary, but will happily vote for Biden).

You claim that every poll that goes against your intuition is wrong.  You pronounce with certainty that Trump will definitely win the election overall,  Michigan (despite consistently strong polling for Biden), Wisconsin, and who knows what else.  Why should we trust your clearly biased "inutition" over gold-standard pollsters like Marquette?

You should try a little humility instead of certainty, and maybe people would take you more seriously and pleasantly instead of dismissing you as an obnoxious jerk.  

I don't think it's 100%. I think it is 80% chance he wins like I said two days ago. The only way I can see him losing is if we go into a depression which is possible but I don't see it. I think the virus will calm down by late May early June and things will slowly start recovering. If democrats had a better opponent I would be much less confident. Biden is just simply not a good candidate. Sure he is not as disliked as Hillary but he isn't inspiring and he is not an outsider type candidate which is who defeats incumbents: Reagan, Bill Clinton.

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Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

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Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

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We really dodged a bullet not nominating Sanders. Thank god.

Sanders’ failure in the primaries also made him decline in head to head polls. When he was the front runner he beat Trump by more than Biden did in polls, but now that Biden is the presumptive nominee Biden is getting all of the support.

IMO both of them were decent candidates in the general.

Bernie is a better candidate because he can APPEAL IN THE RUST BELT. Biden's positions on trade and his career politician status will make him toxic with the WWC. He is Hillary 2.0 just a less hated version.

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I hope some of the die hards continue to underestimate Biden.

Lack of enthusiasm doesn't mean you aren't going to vote.

What challenger without a lack of enthusiasm ever won? Bill in '92 had big enthusiasm as did Reagan in '80.

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Too early to speculate about anything

True but it's fun

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Anecdotal, but it seems to be the two most prevalent complaints about Hillary were her inauthenticity and arrogance. That a) she seemed painfully fake trying to come across as relatable, and b) acted like she was owed the presidency; that it was her turn.

Biden is neither. Whatever one things of his political positions, far fewer people see him as arrogant and self-entitled or fake. There's an element of sexism to that no doubt, but there's also a good bit of it being that Hillary was just a bad candidate in some ways Biden just simply isn't.

So? The public didn't see McCain or Dole as fake or arrogant either and both of them lost and those men had decorated war records. Yes Biden is not as disliked as Hillary but the polls are showing  Trump has a good deal more enthusiasm behind his candidacy. This cannot be discounted because it helped Bush in '04 and Obama in 2012 to win re-election. People were FOR them and not just against the other guy.

McCain had the misfortune of being in the same party as an incumbent President with an approval rating in the 30s, a massive economic crisis, an unprepared running mate, and running against a charismatic rising star with favorability ratings north of 60%. No Republican was beating Obama in 2008. And Dole was running against a charismatic, popular incumbent President with approval well north of 50%. I'd argue neither are particularly good comparison

To the extent Biden has a good historical precedent it might be Kerry, but he also pretty significantly over-performed fundamentals. Bush entered 2004 with an approval rating near 60% and held an 8 point lead after the RNC. Kerry closed furiously and nearly pulled off a monumental comeback

Not really. He lost by 3 million votes. He nearly lost Wiscosnin too. Almost doesn't count. I actually think Biden is even worse candidate than Kerry. Kerry could at least debate. Biden is seriously sounding very senile and everyone besides his hardcore supporters can see that. This race could be over before it begins.

That's just not what we've been seeing in the Dem debates though. Biden's last 3-4 debates have been his best of the entire primary, and his last two have been his sharpest. He's getting better at debates, not worse.

Going up against Bernie is not Trump. Bernie is really not that good of a debater. He's not awful but he isn't good at putting his opponent on the spot and challenging them. He kind of backs down too easily. Trump won't.  Hillary low key kicked Bernie's butt in the debates and Trump resoundingly beat Hillary in the 2nd debate. It wasn't even close. Trump is no Reagan in debates or anything but he's a showman and he's good at getting under his opponents skin: Jeb, Marco and Hillary to some degree.