Predict Trump's Popular Vote Number in 2020

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I predict 49.5% and he gets 67 million votes.

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I predict 48-50%.

47-48%, perhaps 70 million numerically, but really it's waaaay too early for that.

True but it is fun. He only got a little over 46% in 2016. He def is gonna beat that number next time because of all the 3rd party vote and incumbency.

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I'm also going to say 47%. The Republican has won between 45.6 and 47.9 percent of the popular vote in four of the last five elections, and I think Trump will be right in the middle of that range.

I'm guessing the share of the vote won by third parties will decline from 5.7% to about 3%. So that would leave the Democrat with 50% of the vote.

Democrats won't get 50% running against an incumbent president you are dreaming. Democrats will be lucky to get 48 percent of the vote in 2020.

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48-50%, perhaps at the upper end of that range. If there is no war or recession, Trump will gain from (1) voters who were told that if elected, he would be the end of the world or some major disaster and it wasn't; (2) voters who prefer to go with the incumbent; (3) voters who are part of the #WalkAway movement or have been alienated by continued extremism on the left; (4) voters who like to reward a good economy; all in addition to what he got in 2016. Offsetting that, he will lose from voters who had an extreme dislike of Hillary Clinton personally and saw it as a binary choice.

Solid post. There are def going to be a lot of Hillary '16 Trump 2020 voters who simply thought Trump was too much of a risk in 2016 but interestingly Trump will still be running as an outsider even as an incumbent.

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40-41%, with Kasich running in the general and taking about 5-6%

Even if I'm wrong, I'm pretty certain it won't reach 46% again. Maybe 42-44%.

I'm curious as to why people think he'll get even close to a majority when his approvals as president have never been above 45%, and are usually somewhere from 38-41%, and he hasn't done a single thing to improve his numbers beyond his 2016 base while having already lost some of that. I honestly don't see him winning the PV or EC without some sort of catastrophic attack happening close to election day.

If that happens, Trump is basically assured of winning the EC unless Kasich takes Ohio outright.  The PV would probably be 46%Trump/44%Dem/6%Kasich/4%Other

Kasich would help Trump I think