Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

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The beautiful thing is that a Moldovan Putinist who relies on racist political themes actually ended up saving us from Bibi anyway.

Your emphasis on Lieberman's country of birth is also a bit... racist? And I dislike his politics probably as much as you do.

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First polls show YB gaining, Likud-Kulano basically at a standstill, Labour almost at the threshold. No majority for the Right without YB

What are the seat numbers?

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I have to imagine Netanyahu's election strategy would be: A vote for YB is a vote for B&W which is a vote for Labor which is a vote for the Arabs.

🤔

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Its amazing the garbage that these haredi parties impose on Israelis. Its like they want Israel to be some sort of Jewish version of Iran or Saudi Arabia.

Why can't there be a grand coalition for one term between Likud and Blue/White for no other reason that to exclude all the haredi parties from government, ditch all this religious claptrap from the Israeli law books and tell those freaks to go to hell???

I think the main reason is that it's not in Netanyahu's interest. Such a "grand" coalition is possible only without Netanyahu.

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* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left.

Reminds me of this XKCD comic



https://xkcd.com/927/

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* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left.

Reminds me of this XKCD comic



https://xkcd.com/927/

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So, Likud, if you feel so strongly, form an alliance with Otzma yourself...

+1

AFAIK even the previous "United Right" alliance was formed due to pressure from Likud.

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Also I guess it's safe to say there's going to be a Likud-United Right-Shas-UTJ-Labor government or maybe just Likud-United Right-Shas-UTJ-Gesher+Peretz government, but that should be enough for a majority.

Netanyahu already tried this and Labour didn't accept it.

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https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1163108602615345152

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How likely is that if Netanyahu needs just one or two more MPs, Gesher splits from Labour and joins the government?

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My result of the 7 question test:
85% Blue and White
73% Democratic Camp
73% Labour-Gesher

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If you are a fan of Israeli election campaign ads, here they are, for literally every party:
https://www.youtube.com/user/ahronshapiro/videos?view=0&sort=dd&shelf_id=0

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My unserious guess is - the pro-Bibi block (Likud, Yamina, UTJ, Shas, Otzma if above the threshold) at exactly 60 seats, just like in the last election.

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Liberman pledged he wouldn't sit in anything but a unity government. for some reason I believe him

Well if you exclude Haredi parties and Arabs, a government with B&W and (at least parts of) Likud is his only option.

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Shas calling for a unity government, so is Lieberman but Shas will still recommend Netanyahu be PM

wtf?!

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Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

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https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1177124274722791424
There might be a compromise between Liberman and the Haredi?!

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https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1179459023327973377

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Any updates?

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What are the odds of a minority government led by B&W? The main problem I see is that the Joint List isn't going to join a government in its entirety. YB could possibly be counted on for confidence and supply, but doesn't seem likely to join a centre-left government. It does seem like a government can be formed and function ad hoc on issue by issue, but still secular in nature and keep YB for C&S.

I think a more likely government is BW + YB + Labour + maybe Dem Union, with informal support from Joint List.

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As we speak: New Right are merging with Likud, Bennett is minister of Defence. Scenes

Preparation for the third election? Does this mean that the URWP coalition, including Otzma, will be revived?

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https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffJMason/status/1199788636889395205

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It might be a way to save face for Liberman, to weaken the perception of him supporting a government with Haredi (Bibi) or Arab (Gantz) support?

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Wait a minute. As far as I can see Gantz got the signatures from Joint List, Democratic Union, Labour, Blue and White and Israel Beiteinu (Lieberman), and Bibi got the signatures from Beiteinu and Likud - it means Gantz has over 61 and Netanyahu doesn't?