Mr. 47%

[ucscgaldamez]

I agree with the original poster. Obama is in trouble. That is why he is spending a lot of money defining Romney during the summer. I just had a meeting with over 10 of my college friends who were hardcore Obama fans during 2008 and there was a lot of dissapointment in his performance. He hasn't been great. Period. We know that. Most said they will vote for him but there was some resistance to considering voting for him. If some of those that are dissapointed decide to stay home, Romney wins. There is also a danger for Republicans who think the 47% is what he will get on election day. Many undecided voters and former Obama voters dislike Romney, and they seem to be already saying some of the things Obama wants them to believe, "he cares only for the rich, etc" they may be more likely to vote for Obama on election day as opposed to staying home.

This election really hinges on whether Obama can mobilize and re-energize a substantial amount of people who voted for him (or are more likely to vote for him) who are between 18-39. Republicans should be concerned about this. Only about 4055% of this group are very energized and following the election closely, compared to 70-80% of those over 50. After the conventions, we will be able to better assess what success he is having with this group. I actually think the entertainment industry can assist Obama with this, but I don't know how involved celebrities will be this year compared to 2008. I know Oprah said she won't be as involved.

Obama will likely need an electorate that is D+3 to win. If he is below that, he will likely lose. I think he will lose independents by around 5%.

I think the election will be very close. I really foresee a 49-49 election. It will come down to those swing states. He may even lose the popular vote slightly and win the election. The independents in those swings states are somewhat different than the independents in the south who are strongly against Obama.