Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."
Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.
#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.
This is probably the best take so far. I don't want to attribute swings or trends to voter demographic groups because I feel like a lot of that will be determined by lower-propensity voters who weren't eligible to or didn't feel like voting in previous cycles.
I’ve thought this for a while, but I the the main reason that Biden gained with white men and Trump gained with everyone else because it was the highest turnout election in 100 years. I can totally buy that super low propensity white men lean Dem and low propensity of every other group Lean GOP.
If 2024 doesn’t have similar turnout, a lot of those trends could “reverse” as you said.
