MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[Ferguson97]

Unless Biden wins Montana, Tester can't win. Safe R. Polls will show it close, but don't let that fool you.

Given your track record, I'm inclined to think this race is actually Tilt D.

[Ferguson97]

I would not be surprised if Tester wins Re-Election in Montana while Sherrod Brown loses in Ohio.

Absolutely possible!

Really, really bold take. It’s not as if the vast majority of observers who have been following the 2024 red state contests have been mentioning or hinting at this in some way, shape or form or anything.

If I had a dime for every "You shouldn’t underestimate Jon Tester", "Tester’s not going to be easy to beat" or "Ohio will be easier for Republicans than Montana" that I’ve heard - yes! - even outside of this forum, I’d probably be able to take three months off.

I don’t think any Republican operative in the state is actually underestimating Jon Tester or treating this race as any better than a pure Toss-up. In fact, if you asked most people involved in/with access to electoral war rooms or past campaigns, I’d wager that the majority (including a considerable number of Republicans) would tell you that Tester is favored over anyone not named Greg Gianforte (including Zinke and especially Rosendale) and no worse than a very slight underdog to Gianforte.

In fact, I’m struggling to think of another Senate race where there has been such a notable disconnect between the empirical situation on the ground (which suggests that any competently executed campaign will start out with an advantage over Tester) and the "gut-level" feelings of people involved in state politics/political campaigns. ND-SEN 2018 does spring to mind, though — not a perfect analogy by any means, and Tester almost certainly won’t fall into some of the traps that Heitkamp did unless he becomes overconfident (always a danger for entrenched incumbents in particular), but few people actually expected Heitkamp to lose (let alone by the margin she did) in 2016/2017. I think she herself bought into the hype that she was unbeatable/that her facade was rock-solid and let down her guard in the process. Bullock did the same thing — assumed that his brand was indestructible and figured that even a presidential bid wouldn’t hurt him much back home. The problem many of these people had is that they thought they could get away with anything because ideology and the incumbent's voting/past record matter far less to swing voters than personality, branding, and rhetoric. This is of course not an incorrect assumption per se, but if (and only if) undergirded by the right rhetoric, your voting record and past can turn into a useful tool (and often, as in the case of Heitkamp, the only available tool) to change even less informed voters' perceptions of you. It’s not easy, but it can be done if you have the right people working for your opponent's campaign!

That you think Tester loses is basically confirmation that he will win re-election.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1672306732033253377

Rosendale in

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1672306732033253377
Rosendale in

good news or bad news for Tester?

He already beat him in 2018.

[Ferguson97]

The prudery in this thread is astounding, though since it's Atlas I shouldn't be surprised. How the hell can anyone be genuinely bothered by those pictures? Touch grass.

I really think it would be incredibly beneficial if this board were given the opportunity to observe a focus group of female swing voters (read: non-ideological women age 55+). I think many here would agree with you given the demographic skew of who posts here, but I'd caution folks here not to dismiss the resonance this can have in a targeted way with older women. There's a documented phenomenon in politics that we call the "nice young man effect" in which older women gravitate towards male candidates who either remind them of or are idealized versions of their sons/grandsons/nephews/sons in law/etc. Campaign and candidates work hard to maintain this very polished, clean, and mannered exterior and things like this with even a small whiff of impropriety can bring it down with virtually no window to rebuild it. And dismissing it, calling it not relevant or a smear campaign (as candidates, especially Republicans, tend to do) only communicates that you are out of touch with them.

A good (if imperfect) way to relate to this: what would your mother think? Your grandmother?

Atlas, in general, has a pretty bad habit of acting as if every voter is a single childless male under 35.

[Ferguson97]

Good news for Tester. A divisive primary can only hurt the Republicans.

[Ferguson97]

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/02/26/congress/rosendale-denies-rumors-pregnant-staffer-00143336

Rep. Matt Rosendale’s office is threatening legal action against former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp after she said on a podcast that he dropped out of the Senate race because he impregnated a staffer.

Heitkamp, a Democrat who lost her seat to Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) in 2018, made the allegation during an appearance on the “Talking Feds with Harry Litman” podcast. Rosendale dropped out of the race a few days ago, about a week after he officially announced he would run. It’s still unclear if he plans to seek reelection to his House seat.

“I think [the GOP] caucus may lose a member in the next couple days,” Heitkamp alleged. “Just to gossip a little bit: There’s a reason why Rosendale backed out of that Senate race — the rumor is he impregnated a 20-year-old staff person.”

Absolutely wild allegation…