GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Ferguson97]

In a fair election I think Warnock wins this easily, but I'm concerned that GA's voter suppression could disrupt that.

[Ferguson97]

I'm still thinking Warnock narrowly wins.

[Ferguson97]

I'm still thinking Warnock narrowly wins.

Very well possible, especially with Abrams's turnout machine. Kelly is much more likely to lose in AZ imho.

My current expectation is Kelly and Cortez-Masto lose, while Warnock and Hassan hang on.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1511417168633683972

Come back to me with a reputable source.

[Ferguson97]

I think this is the most likely senate race to flip this year based on a few factors but neither party should sleep on the race. I rate the race as a toss-up right now but closer to Lean R.

Really? I think Warnock is the safest out of the Kelly/Warnock/CCM trio (though all lose), but I could be wrong.

[Ferguson97]

You literally just posted this a week ago, the exact same tweet.

And it hasn't been substantiated.

[Ferguson97]

How embarrassing are the other kids that Christian is the one he chose to publicly acknowledge?

[Ferguson97]

Deeply depressing that this race is basically a tossup.

[Ferguson97]

2022 GOP campaign must probably be one of the most hilariously bad campaigns of any major political party in the western world in more than half a decade. "How to mess up" for dummies.

Let’s wait until AFTER the election to say this. For all you know polls aren’t catching actual sentiment.

Even if Republicans do well in the midterms, that doesn’t mean that candidates ran good races. They’d have won in spite of their efforts, not because of them.

[Ferguson97]

Question for anyone on the ground or who has seen ads - is Warnock focusing on abortion? I feel like he has not been hitting Walker nearly enough on the issue, but maybe I just haven't seen ads about it.

Abrams is, Warnock isn't, in the ads I've seen.

Interesting. Feels like a total miscalculation on his part.

In Georgia? Not at all.

[Ferguson97]

It's just hard for me to understand that ... this is polling higher than Warnock right now.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1568989995821563909

"Democrats are focused on nonsensical culture wars like if trans men can get pregnant. We are focusing on REAL issues like how there are like 5 or 6 trans girls in high school sports!"

[Ferguson97]

Also, Walker is a millionaire. This whole "I'm a country boy who doesn't wear nice suits" is literally a lie.

To Republicans, elite status isn't about income. It's about your political views.

To them, millionaire conservative Hershel Walker is 100x more 'real American' than a Democrat-voting waitress in the Bronx.

[Ferguson97]

Are Republicans likely to come vote for Walker?

No.

You're on the ground, Horus. Do you think Warnock wins?

[Ferguson97]

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/dloesch/status/1577348109704871960

Classy…

[Ferguson97]

It's probably over for Walker.

How is it over for walker? I really don’t see republicans voting for Warnock
Just because walker paid for an abortion 13 years ago. Most will still bite their tongue and vote more so against Warnock than for walker. This is more a personal issue that a Georgia issue and I really don’t see it making that much of an impact. Dems we’re never going to vote for him.

Warnock doesn't need them to vote for him, he just needs them to leave the ballot blank.

[Ferguson97]

You can tell that many Republicans don’t actually view abortion as murder, because imagine them trying to defend Walker if it came out that he paid for someone to drown his newborn in a bathtub. To prolifers, abortion is morally equivalent to killing a newborn baby. But for some reason they treat these two things as very different! Hmmmmm…

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/sollenbergerrc/status/1577661077466353664

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1577827464889393152?s=20&t=g3HBWz8ObJTy...

To be fair to Walker, he has so much brain damage it's entirely possible that he doesn't remember who she is.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1578420124373389312

[Ferguson97]

And yet I’ll bet $10,000 that we don’t see the kind of abandonment that we saw about Roy Moore.

I mean yes, being a hypocrite about abortion is nowhere near as bad as pedophilia, so this is probably a fairly safe bet.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/mepfuller/status/1578545363950395392

Does his wife also have brain damage? How could she possibly think that contacting this woman was a good idea?

[Ferguson97]

His poor son…

Seriously, it's heartbreaking to think about.

This guy is clearly a broken person, and he's done a lot of harm to the people around him. These allegations from his ex-wife and now his son are of a repeatedly violent or unstable person. We're in extremely polarized times and many a Georgia conservative will hold their noses for Republican control, but they might rue even a win here. A Senator can't run from pulling a Preston Brooks or McLaurin-Tillman on a colleague they hate.

That's true. It's miracle Marjorie Taylor Greene hasn't murdered a colleague yet.

She's still in her freshman term, give it time.

[Ferguson97]

Walker will still get votes from the Christian Right because of his policies, not his actions

This is why I think Walker will still get ~45% or so of the vote in Georgia at the end. This is not a Todd Akin situation, where he would lose by double digits - a scenario that might have happened 20 or 30 years ago, but is not possible now, due to increased polarization. But I think that this move on the part of evangelicals could be one of the reasons why religiosity in the United States is declining, as many younger people view them as hypocrites who don't actually live up to their moral standards.

Todd Akin would win if the identical situation happened today, though. That kind of comment isn't damaging to Republicans anymore.

[Ferguson97]

ah yes, Free Beacon. Totally not a hit piece from a rightwing outlet!

The article has solid receipts and on the record quotes; what are your specific problems with the article?

Any source that is not from one of the mainstream media outlets is regarded with great skepticism on this forum.

It's almost like people value credibility.