2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

Morning Consult/POLITICO has D+5 this week, 47-42. It was D+1 last week, 45-44.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/10/25151347/2210148_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_10-26-22_SH.pdf

I'm sure this shift will get just as much media coverage as last week's Republican shift

[Ferguson97]

Morning Consult/POLITICO has D+5 this week, 47-42. It was D+1 last week, 45-44.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/10/25151347/2210148_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_10-26-22_SH.pdf

FYI, Morning Consult/Politico's poll around this time in 2018 was D+8... which is exactly what the final result ended up being.

[Ferguson97]

So that's two major pollsters showing a D+5 shift in the GCB in just 1 week.

It would be funny last week's shift to Republicans was an anomaly.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1585648868133412864

[Ferguson97]

D+3, D+2, R+4, R+1

Lol so we’ve just got no clue what Election Day is gonna look like, that rocks

[Ferguson97]

It would be something if this ended up being a neutral or Democratic year, and would be unprecedented. Over the last century, there have only been four midterms in which the President's party did well - 1934 (New Deal realignment), 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis), 1998 (Clinton impeachment), and 2002 (9/11 effect). What distinguishes 2022 from these preceding years is that the incumbent President in those years enjoyed strong approval ratings, while Biden's approval (according to RCP) is at around 43%, similar to Obama's in 2010. It would be extraordinary if Democrats managed to hold their ground with the President underwater by 10 points in approvals.

I think the difference here is that whereas 1934/1962/1998 were specifically due to the actions taken by/against the President and 2002 was a result of 'rally around the flag', the Dobbs decision is completely independent of Biden's actions, so people may vote for Democrats even if they're not improving their opinion of him.

[Ferguson97]

FWIW, Civiqs has remained steady

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1585671635851280385

How did their 2018 tracker look?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1585720386959790081

How do people still take RCP seriously?

[Ferguson97]

Pretty funny that Schumer's anecdote is pretty much the opposite of the consensus of those states.

[Ferguson97]

It’s pretty crazy that Dems are outfundraising Rs in a Biden midterm

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1586789028501901316

LOL RCP is a joke

[Ferguson97]

Is PA-12 literally just because of the Mike Doyle name sharing?

[Ferguson97]

Is Democrats internal polling varying wildly from public polling or something?

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1587504980445085700

Ooh, my time to bring some insight as a campaign fundraiser

It always strikes me as strange when people who follows elections closely treat a candidate actively campaigning as a sign that they're underperforming expectations.

Even if you're in a Safe Democratic/Safe Republican district, you have to at least pretend to be running a campaign for appearances sake.

I don't know how expensive the New Mexico media market is, but $145k is relatively cheap for a political ad.

This late in the campaign, there's not many other ways that you can spend that money - you've already set aside funds for recurring expenses, you're not taking on any new salaried staff at that point, etc.

Could Fernandez be in trouble? Of course. But airing a campaign ad a week before the election isn't an indicator of that.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1587519919909765120

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1587894880663207940

Sharice Davids getting a Lean D rating is a huge relief.

I'm curious about their justification for moving Sherrill though, I haven't noticed anything locally that would indicate she has lost ground. She probably had the best debate of the Kim/Malinowski/Sherrill trio.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1587939553230426113

REAL

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1587939553230426113

REAL

What does this has to do with ratings recruitment and fundraising?

Oops. I posted the wrong tweet. Corrected.

[Ferguson97]

[Ferguson97]

Looks like the final average between Nate Silver (1.2%) and Sean Trende(2.5%) is 1.8%.

Which may seem small but that can make quite the difference with so many close races.