Which poster will be eating the most crow after the Election?

[Ferguson97]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

[Ferguson97]

The 413 NUT map optimists like Monstro or the tiresome doomers like Forumlurker161 will potentially be eating a lot of crow, but I know it won't be me because my prediction is more in the middle of the range of possible outcomes.

In my defense, my final prediction is 388

So you think Trump wins Iowa, Ohio, and ME-02?

[Ferguson97]

The 413 NUT map optimists like Monstro or the tiresome doomers like Forumlurker161 will potentially be eating a lot of crow, but I know it won't be me because my prediction is more in the middle of the range of possible outcomes.

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

I think "eating the most crow" can't apply to someone who expresses uncertainty or even thinks Biden will win narrowly. It has to go to somebody who really thinks Trump will win outright and yells about it a lot (Forumlurker et all) or someone who is all in on the 413 map (Monstro et all).

For the record, I've settled on the 388 map

Final prediction

Biden 388-150

I'm most unsure of how Ohio & ME-2 will go

Ironically I'm more optimistic than you at this point - I have your map but Iowa and ME-02 go to Biden.

[Ferguson97]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

Explain your reasoning for NV/PA/NE-02/NC

[Ferguson97]

So I see we've learned absolutely nothing from 2018's panic over Nevada.

I would generally see NV going to Biden, but his extremely weak performance there during the caucus (much worse than Hillary) could mean a surprise win for Trump there this time ...

Caucus doesn't mean a whole lot given a much smaller number of people are voting vs the primary. Not to mention the race was significantly more crowded than in 2016, where Hillary faced literally one opponent.

Also, the entire argument is based on the idea that there are people who participate in a Democratic caucus that won’t support the democratic nominee. That doesn’t make sense considering how much more of a commitment caucuses are than primaries. Who are these mythical voters that spent hours caucusing for Sanders or Warren, but will now either stay home or swap to Trump?

[Ferguson97]

There are also other - more psychological reasons - why Trump might win again, but I will explain those on Wednesday if he really wins, because I don't want to look like an idiot right now.

(Hopefully, I don't have to explain those reasons at all next week ...)

That’s not how this works, you can’t make a prediction and then give your explanation after the lucky guess is proven right.