“Doomers” megathread

[Ferguson97]

This is a tie and effectively a Trump victory.
Could protests in Philadelphia deliver Pennsylvania to Trump?

Arizona is not voting to the left of Florida and Penn.

I'll bet that AZ votes to the left of FL.

[Ferguson97]

It seems like everything's moving the wrong way right now. Think I'm going to take a break from Atlas until Election Day.

Yeah, things aren't looking good.

I'm particularly worried about whatever is in the Hunter Biden envelope that was found in the mail. I think whatever Tucker is holding will cost Biden 2-3 points and likely the election.

Biden in Minnesota should also be setting off alarm bells.

You are completely delusional. 2-3 points? Do you have any idea how much that is?

You think 3,000,000-4,500,000 people will switch their votes based off something that isn't even real?

I sincerely encourage you to seek professional help if you believe that.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1322269294789615617

[Ferguson97]

a) there’s been a massive surge in black male support for Trump,

Massive? No. There's been a small shift for Trump among non-college Black and Hispanic males, but not enough to shift the results because Biden's gains among white voters (especially women) will make up for this.

b) Republicans are beating Dems in new registrations

Two things: One, I've seen Republicans gaining among registrations, but not new registrations. So I'm not sure where you're getting this. A large portion of this is ancestral Democrats changing their registration even though they haven't voted Democrat since Bill Clinton. Two, Democrats made massive voter registration gains between 2017 and the 2020 primaries.

c) Rural Pennsylvania is under-polled

I haven't seen any evidence for this.

[Ferguson97]

Third option: It is neither an outlier nor a warning sign.

Biden doesn't need Iowa, and if Trump is being underpolled in the Midwest then it's likely Biden is being underpolled in the Southwest/southeast.

[Ferguson97]

a) there’s been a massive surge in black male support for Trump,
therefore “if black males vote then Trump will win.” Also, Hispanics in Florida.

Polls seem to suggest there might be some swing to Trump from this demographic, but the part that goes "if black males vote then Trump will win" is obviously ludicrous. The more black males that vote the better it will be for Biden.

Neither of you are right lol.

If more black men who vote for Trump turn out than black men who vote for Biden, then that helps the former.

Conversely, every democrat black man who votes hurts Trump instead.

Simply and ease as that!

Doesn’t it depend where they’re concentrated? If Trump’s Black support is in states like California and Arkansas, then it doesn’t matter. If it’s concentrated in Pennsylvania and Georgia, then it does matter.