Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

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I thought the Italicum was a separate thing and had already been approved.

Also, what's with so much of the left being opposed? Is it just because they hate Renzi personally?

Italicum has been approved, but Renzi agreed to change parts of it in order to make peace with part of the minority within his party.

Yeah, what remains of the left (the party is Sinistra Italiana, which polls at 3%; the leader of the left-wing No is D'Alema, the politician who stabbed Prodi in the back in 1998 in order to become PM) is against the reform mostly because of Renzi.
Take D'Alema: he was part of the old guard kicked out by Renzi in 2013. Then they made peace, only for D'Alema to become Renzi's worse enemy once he was overlooked in favour of Mogherini as Italy's pick for High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs...

In fact, many things which are in today's reform were also part of the constitutional reform proposed in the late 1990's by...D'Alema himself.

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The latest from Grillo:

"Those who support the Constitutional reform are the serial killers of our children's future"

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italy is the only western country atm in which one establishment party wants to reshape something important and the populists - left and right - are winning the fight for the status quo.

Pretty much.
Which is one of the reasons why I hope the undecideds (which pollsters estimated to be around 20% of voters, so up to 7 million people) will eventually decide to vote Yes...

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What is the Beatrice Di Maio nonsense about? Yes, despite all the political implications of this ref, that is what I am interested in.

La Stampa, a Turin-based newspaper, came out with an article on a number of suspicious popular Twitter accounts. All were anti-Renzi, and each concentrated on some issue (immigrants and so on). According to some algorithm, it appeared that it was all part of some centrally-controlled system.
A few days later, Brunetta's wife (Brunetta is one of the leaders of Forza Italia) said that she was controlling one of those Twitter accounts.

All very grotesque.

BTW, yesterday BuzzFeed published an article on the Five Star Movement and the internet propaganda.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/italys-most-popular-political-party-is-leading-europe-in-fak

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I think No will win by 2-3%.

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   Wow, that big of a margin would be a huge slap in the face for Renzi, with his resignation that much more likely.
    I wonder what the regional breakdown will be.  Possible narrow yes victory in Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, losses elsewhere, but where would the biggest no victory be?

Veneto

No is really strong in the Southern regions.
This, coupled with the fact that young voters are also more likely to vote No (...) may actually be good news for the Yes, since they're both segments of the electorate with the lowest turnout.

Anyway, polls close at 11PM, and votes should be counted pretty quickly.

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Turnout for voters not living in Italy was 40%, up from 30ish% at the last general elections.

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i think this was the brave and right thing to do.

renzi did "occupy" the title or prime minister to achieve things.

if the people don't want to make italy more competetive and able to survive, it's their own decision.

Wasn't one of Renzi's more recent moves to increase pensions and lower the retirement age? Sounds like the guy was a real reformer...

No.
He increased only the lowest pensions, and didn't lower the retirement age, but rather allowed those 1 or 2 years away from retirement to retire early but with a "monetary penalty". It was mostly a policy aimed at increasing job turnovers.

Anyway, yet another bitter defeat in this sh**tty year.
Getting 40% in a one-against-all is not something which should be undervalued, so Renzi is not finished politically. We'll see what happens now...with the current institutional setup, it's difficult to see how you can end up with a stable government.

Regardless of the result, it was a battle worth fighting.

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There are rumors that due to the scale of defeat Renzi will be forced out of the leadership of PD.

Who could replace him as head of the PD that would have any appeal?

If he resigns it's only to force an early congress, with respect to the set date (which would be next November).
Renzi would enter the congress with 13 million people having voted for the reform, while other possible candidates would be Enrico Rossi (Tuscany's governor, left-wing but not really known nationwide) and Maurizio Martina (Agriculture Minister, also left-wing, liked by some in the party but again unknown nationwide).

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   Another irony about the 5 star movement is that now with the runoff system for the lower house is that if it can reach the runoff it looks to be in the best position to defeat either the left or the right.

The more ironic thing is that, had the constitutional reform passed, that would have implied an overall majority.
But, as it is, there is no electoral law which can also ensure a majority in the Senate (since seats have to be given according to the vote share in each region).

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    Lost in all the excitement of Sunday's double vote (Austria and Italy), is the fact that we have yet another big polling failure.  Polls showed nowhere near a 20 point margin of victory for no, but maybe something happened in the last week when there were no more polls.

To be fair, all polls showed at least 20% of undecideds...
If you consider 2/3 of them going for the No, it adds up.
And with a high turnout, this was considered to be highly possible.

I had lost all hope when I saw the huge turnout during the day.

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  Does anything stand out as surprising with this map?

Another interesting observation: In (post-)industrial Genoa city the traditionally right-wing up-scale quarters were the only ones where yes prevailed. The traditionally left-wing working class quarters rejected the proposal by clear margins. Similar patterns seem to have occurred in other cities. (Rome? Turin?)

The Yes won in the most central, up-scale quarters of pretty much all major cities.

Indeed, the vote can really be explained by a few factors: there is a strong correlation between the No vote and areas with higher unemployment, lower presence of foreigners, lower level of education...the usual pattern we'been seing recently.
It's really becoming a core vs periphery issue.

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1) Is this description accurate?

From my somewhat limited experience (I started following Italian politics in 2006), very much so. The Italian left's main strategy for most of Berlusconi's reign was to call him out on the outrageous things he said or his shady business dealings, and later on the bunga bunga. While these were all things that outraged left-wingers, it turned out that the average voter didn't care much either way, and when presented with unpopular center-left government, went with the only alternative.

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Hindsight is 20/20 and I'm not exactly a master of political strategy, but my guess is that they should have spent less time asking the question "Is Berlusconi a good role model for you children?" and instead start asking "What has Berlusconi actually done for Italy?" - the answer being almost nothing, aside from laws aimed at putting himself out of trouble judicially. I really don't want to sound like a Renzi hack (I don't even really like him!), but Renzi is one of the first who understood this, and it worked wonders. When he took over, Berlusconi's coalition was leading in the polls with Forza Italia itself the high 20s. Less than six months later, in the EP elections, it won 17%. Even these days, with Renzi's approvals down, FI is polling below 15% (now the Lega has gained a lot, but that's a different issue).

Yep, pretty good analysis.

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The latest from the M5S: institute "people's courts" to establish whether media are reporting accurate and true news.

This happened just a few days after the government proposed to tackle the whole fake-news issue, which the M5S actively supports...

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I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

As did I, probably would vote them, the Italian left or the five star movement. I view communism as the ideology for the past, while I don't really like the ceartin aspects of social liberalism, gone extreme of the Italian Left. I like the eurosceptism of the five star movement, and their destruction of the modern political right, so will probably vote for them.

Don't hate Renzi, but don't think situations in Italy are optimal, and don't like renzi, the god awful referendum, labour reforms, neoliberalism, his circle jerk support for the EU along with its  neoliberalism and austerity social liberalism.

Probably would for five star movement, quite hesitantly though. Could be persuaded to vote for the Italian Left, if they're not dingbants, or the refounded communists if they're a big tent party of multiple forms of socialism.

You're aware that the Five Star Movement is a populist, pro-Putin, protofascist movement, right?

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Very interesting development. Quite a significant symbolic shift, at least. The M5S have always been at odds with the UKIP members in that the Italians have actually tried to make real parliamentary work. Also they rarely vote the same, so it has been more of a marriage of convenience to get funds etc. Curious whether ALDE will accept them, but it would make them the third-largest group again, which Verhofstadt would love.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-m5s-ukip-idUSKBN14S0HN

I don't know what's more absurd - that M5S would join ALDE, or that ALDE would accept them, when just 2 years ago they vehemently rejected the idea of an alliance...

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ALDE just rejected the deal.

LOL

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Big day tomorrow: the Italian "Supreme Court" will decide whether the Italicum electoral law is constitutionally valid or not.
It probably will change a few parts (such as the second round and the majority premium); what is really important is which parts will be affected and whether whatever remains afterwards could easily be used as a new electoral law or not.

Renzi has already said that PD favours a return to Mattarellum (75% of seats assigned according to single-member costituencies, 25% according to the national vote share). Same for Lega Nord.
All other parties instead want to return to a proportional electoral law (except for M5S, which changes its mind on a monthly basis), which could be pretty much what remains of the Italicum after the Court's decision.

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Renzi has already said that PD favours a return to Mattarellum (75% of seats assigned according to single-member costituencies, 25% according to the national vote share). Same for Lega Nord.

Wouldn't this be really bad for the Lega?

With Mattarellum, Berlusconi would be forced to ally with both Lega and Fratelli d'Italia, and in doing so, would have to give lots of seats in Northern Italy to the Lega, which is very strong there.

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The second round has been declared unconstitutional, while the majority premium has survived.
Also, the electoral law which has come out has been declared as being immediately appliable.

In practice, there is now a proportional law with a majority premium awarded to any party getting 40% (which, at the moment, seems impossible), and with different entry thresholds between Senate and House.

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  I hate those majority premium seats. Btw,  how would things shake out if it happens that 5Star, the PD and the right wing parties all get about a third of a seats.  What kind of a coalition would likely emerge from that?

PD and the moderate center-right...which, as it is, is represented by Berlusconi's Forza Italia (....)

The newspapers were talking a lot about the possibily of a pact between M5S and Lega Nord, with the latter agreeing to a minority government of the former (who, in this way, could still claim they have no allies).

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Rejoice, Antonio!

D'Alema threatens to split from the PD if there are new elections without a new electoral law.

D'Alema is, politically wise, a criminal.
Nothing less, nothing more.

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Meanwhile in Italy...

At the latest PD meeting, Renzi called for an early Congress, saying that he would resign in order for it to be in the next few months rather than in 2018.
This was supposed to calm the PD minority, who threatened to break away if there were early elections without a congress.

Guess what their response was? At the meeting, Bersani, Speranza, Rossi and co. said "great". Then, the day after, Bersani said to the press that "it can't go on like this, the PD is already split", and there are rumours that they will boycott the general assembly in the next weekend, which should officially call for the early congress.

This is beyond pathetic.

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So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

[SPQR]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

What does that mean?

Nothing, really. Lega/FdI and M5S might have a lot in common rhetorically, but there's no way they'd actually govern together.

Italian-boy, what's your opinion on the Consip affair? This looks pretty damning to me tbh. I don't see how Renzi gets out of it politically, even if he's not directly involved in the inquiry.

It's the only chance M5S has of governing with a proportional electoral law, so I wouldn't rule it out really. Especially if Forza Italia declines an alliance with the hard right.


As for CONSIP, I don't know, there have been loooooots of enquiries which have then turned out to be nothing. The evidence which has come out on the newspapers is far from damning, to be honest.
What is troubling is the fact that it adds up to Verdini being condemned a few days ago, to the split up of PD and its congress, to the continuous attacks by the M5S on the government... it's not a nice moment for Renzi and the center-left in general.
But as for the CONSIP enquiry itself, I'm skeptical.