Italy Local Elections May 2012

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We won Parma? Wow.

So Genoa could be a Right pick up and Palermo should stay put. The rest seem like snooze fests.

I read two weeks ago that PdL and Lega will be running separately in some places. So glad to hear.

Genoa won't be a pick up for PdL.
Vincenzi was not liked at all,but now that Doria has won the primary,Genoa will continue voting for the center-left candidate.

For the rest,these elections aren't remotely as interesting as last year's'. I guess though it will be interesting to see how the parties go while there is Monti's government.
Too bad for Palermo,could have been the first big pick up in Sicily in a long time.

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PdL has completely collapsed.
In Palermo,Orlando (IdV) has 45%,Ferrandelli (Pd) has 18% and Costa (PdL) has 15%...and Sicily has been PdL's stronghold for years.
Everywhere else PdL is out of the runoffs as well. I guess most of those votes went to Grillo's movement,which might go to historic run offs in Parma and Genoa.

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5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Meh, I guess people are so pissed off that they are ready to go for the crazies. Beppe Grillo is an idiot and a scumbag (who said, among other things, that the government is worse than mafia because "mafia doesn't kill people[sic]"). But well, at least we don't have self-defined nazis so far.

Yeah. Guess most PdL ex-voters went for the 5 Stelle this time.
By the way,Phil,FLI is doing even worse than PDL
The Terzo Polo (third pole) is absolutely irrelevant at a local level.

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5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Meh, I guess people are so pissed off that they are ready to go for the crazies. Beppe Grillo is an idiot and a scumbag (who said, among other things, that the government is worse than mafia because "mafia doesn't kill people[sic]"). But well, at least we don't have self-defined nazis so far.

Yeah. Guess most PdL ex-voters went for the 5 Stelle this time.

Probably some Lega votes in the North too: those who finally discovered that Lega was more interested in Rosy Mauro's diamonds and didn't have anything else to vote for.

5 Stelle got their first mayor in a little municipalities near Vicenza.

Definitely.
It's interesting how 5 Stelle improved dramatically with a fall in turnout.
Means they're not really attracting people who don't like the Italian system,but rather former voters of other parties.

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I'm a fan of the guy that basically runs FLI's youth movement on Facebook. He just posted a status about Terzo Polo being dead. Did something big happen in the wake of the elections?

Casini declared on Twitter that the Terzo Polo is dead; it was useful for the immediate post-Berlusconi but now there is gonna be a new project.

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Absolutely no effect.

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After something like 3 days of counting, Catanzaro has been held by PdL Mayor without the need of a run off (50.08% with centre-left at 42.59%). Local PD is protesting against alleged misconduct during the count in some polling stations.

More than alleged...it's been a blatant theft.

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The national polls coming out in this period are obviously gonna have M5S overperform by quite a bit.

Anyway,it's clear that for the next elections it won't be the typical center-left vs center-right...

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Is the M5S even right, left, centrist, or even vagueishly leaning one way, or is it just "we hate all politicians, end of story?"

Definitely the latter.

But leans more to the left, as far as I know.

Blah,not anymore.
Most of its actual voters are former PdL-Lega Nord voters.

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Turnout is dwindling...

Good for the center-left...

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Turnout is dwindling...

Good for the center-left...

It's still horrible. This is going to end up below 40%, it's a defeat for politics as a whole.

It won't end up below 40%,it's 37% now and there is 8 hours of voting tomorrow.
But it's definitely a low turnout.


Bad news that,of all places,Parma is the one with the higher turnout...
Only good thing would be that,after seeing how M5S cannot manage even a medium city,they would lose most (?) credibility.

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PD won in plenty of norhtern small-medium towns,where there was complete PdL-Lega dominance for years.
Good results in the rest of Italy as well, the exception being Parma.

One must not forget that Parma has had a considerable time of social unrest,following huge scandals about the previous administration. Anyway,it's going to be "fun" to see how a M5S mayor manages a medium-big city.
Also,looking at the vote tally,it's pretty clear that,where the M5S went to runoffs against the center-left, almost all of the center-right votes went to their candidate.

As I said,they are leftists no more...

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Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

Phil,I hope you aren't serious,and try to understand that there is no such thing as "The Right".
PdL and Lega will not go together. PdL might not even exist anymore by then,and at this rate whatever party is created in its place might well be overtaken by the M5S.

So,for your mental health's sake,stop dreaming of a "Right-resurrection". The "Left" might not have won massive victories in these elections,but the numbers are pretty clear. Around 60 gains from the center-right out of 140 cities over 15,000 inhabitants.

Just trying to be clear.

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Got "wiped out in all cities in play." I know. I acknowledged that. However, these are mostly small towns and there weren't that many up for grabs.

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

Phil,I hope you aren't serious,and try to understand that there is no such thing as "The Right".
PdL and Lega will not go together. PdL might not even exist anymore by then,and at this rate whatever party is created in its place might well be overtaken by the M5S.

So,for your mental health's sake,stop dreaming of a "Right-resurrection". The "Left" might not have won massive victories in these elections,but the numbers are pretty clear. Around 60 gains from the center-right out of 140 cities over 15,000 inhabitants.

Just trying to be clear.

"The Right" means whatever major center-right party emerges whether it is PdL or something else. Please don't tell me you think a major right leaning alternative won't even be present. If you don't think there will be a "Right resurrection" by the next general, that's cool. I'm not saying there necessarily will be. However, I think talk of an elimination of right leaning major parties (which is what I understand your posts to be saying) is silly. Wasn't the Left supposedly done after 2008's horrific performance?

The two scenarios are completely different. The two Italys are completely different,I dare say.

The center-right in the last 20 years has been exclusively Berlusconi+Lega. That's it. No matter how hard one tries, there has been nothing other than that.
Now Berlusconi is gone for good, and Lega has been hit by incredible scandals which tarnished its historic leader.
So yeah,I don't see how one can even think that there will be a competitive center-right in 2013,if one thinks of the center-right in that way.

If we include Fini in the center-right,it doesn't change much. He and his party are seen as complete failures, and poll at about 3%.
The only hope for the center-right is Casini,and even then it would be an extremely moderate center-right,completely different from what we have witnessed so far in the "Second Republic".


As Antonio V pointed out in the last post,you tend to take things for granted a bit too much. Italy is not the same Italy that it was even 2 years ago.
Even saying that Genoa could have been a right pick up...when PdL candidate got 10%,and the centrist candidate got hammered by 20 points in the runoff...
And let's not even mention Palermo.

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Well,for the moment the PdL voters switched to the M5S...

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Well,for the moment the PdL voters switched to the M5S...

Dude, in a handful of towns in local elections which had the lowest turnout in memory. Come on.

And I was definitely reading the comments from both of you to mean that the center-right was going to be totally dead.

I'm saying that the center-right in the way that it has been meant for the last 20 years is dead.
And that probably there is not enough time for a new one to emerge in just one year,with this political and economic scenario.

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There are no certainties about anything at the moment....what electoral law we'll use in 2013, whether there will be elements of the Monti government running,what coalitions there will be,whether the PdL will be still the same "entity" it is now,who will be its candidate PM....

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Then we aren't really in disagreement on anything here.

By the way, I just read in the Financial Times that while Berlusconi insists he won't run for public office again, there are rumors he might comeback of Alfano can't lead the party to victory next year. Any truth to this?

If Berlusconi comes back, we can really start digging the PdL's grave. But I think even he isn't that deluded.

We should have learned to never underestimate him...

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Latest poll from Ballarò (tv program)
PD 26,7% M5S 18,5% PDL 17,2% IDV 7,8% UDC 7,3% SEL 6,1%

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Berlusconi apparently said that the PdL is dead,and he'll take over the party that will substitute it.

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Berlusconi apparently said that the PdL is dead,and he'll take over the party that will substitute it.

I'm seeing a bunch of Facebook status updates from his page. My translation might be off but he seemed to be refusing the resignation of a PdL official. Not sure why he'd bother to say that if he thinks the party is dead.

He needs scapegoats.