Democrats most important states

[SPC]

I have rated all the GOP-leaning swing states based on how vital they are to the Democrats to win. I calculate this by multiplying the # of EV the state has by the Democrats's chances of winning in that state. For this scenario, I used the 2004 results for the Dems chances of winning. Here is the formula:
[1/(GOP margin of victory)]*# of EV.

Using this formula, I see that IA and OH are numbers 1 and 2 respectively. I do not need to post the others b/c OH and IA will give the Dems the election. Now, I will find the Dem leaning swing states that the Dems need to protect the most using this formula:
[1/(Dem margin of victory)]*# of EV.

Using this formula, I see that WI and PA are the ones the Dems need to protect most. Given these things, here is my map:

[SPC]

Your asic premise is fair enough, except to call them GOP-leaning is a bit biased. Dems have won Iowa 3/4 of the last elections, Penn and Wisc 4 out of the last 4, and Ohio 2 out of 4. I could agree Ohio is Rep leaning but not the other three.

I agree with you. I just put IA and OH as GOP-leaning b/c they went like that in the last election. I didn't call WI and PA GOP-leaning.

[SPC]

Note: Just because the map portrays NV, NM, CO, FL going Republican doesn't mean that a GOP victory there is certain. It just means that they eont be the major parties' major targets in 08.