Assuming
this schedule is correct:
Iowa: Likely Huckabee. Paul would have a good chance if Huckabee were not a likely candidate.
New Hampshire: Likely Romney. Paul would have a good chance if Romney were not a likely candidate.
Colorado/Minnesota: Huckabee might be too Southern to pull off Santorum's magic here, Romney, Paul, or Cruz might win these.
New York: Likely Christie if he's still in, Romney or Bush otherwise.
So, it probably ends up coming down to Romney, Huckabee, and either Paul or Cruz. Much as I would like a split establishment vote, the schedule is on unfavorable turf for Bush (at least
vis a vis Romney) until March, at which point he may cease to be relevant in the contest. Paul's chances are actually significantly diminished by the Huckabee and Romney candidacies, as their unique appeals essentially eliminate Paul's early state advantage.
