Nate Silver: "PPP is basically just duplicating polling averages". (user search)
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  Nate Silver: "PPP is basically just duplicating polling averages". (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nate Silver: "PPP is basically just duplicating polling averages".  (Read 5635 times)
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: November 17, 2014, 10:04:39 AM »

Nate Silver shouldn't bitch around and take some vacation before his head explodes.

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If anything, such a lack of noise in their polling would tend to corroborate Silver's hypothesis that PPP does some fudging to reduce perceived noise rather than refute it.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2014, 10:14:33 AM »

What the heck is wrong with Silver? He seems to have an axe to grind with everyone. One day he trashes PPP, the next Sam Wang and who knows who will be next.

To be fair, in Sam Wang's case it was not Silver who started that "flame war". Wang had been trashing Silver long before the vice versa occured.

Silver's dislike of PPP is another matter though.

Not true, about Sam Wang. Wang disagreed with Silver's methodology (and others like it) and said so. That's very different from trashing him. In response, Silver put up a screed singling out Wang's approach as uniquely wrong among prognosticators.

I don't think Sam Wang has much credibility left when he claimed just months ago that it was almost 100% certain that Democrats would keep the Senate majority. I don't know why people keep defending Sam Wang like it was the most logical thing in the world. On the other hand, it's not much better to defend the Washington Post's model, which most of the season claimed that it was 94-95% likelihood of Republicans gaining the Senate majority. Sure, they were right in the end, yet that bold claim had no substance what so ever when it was laid out several months before the election, when Democrats were still leading in most congressional polls. Sure, Sam Wang is even much, much worse than Washington Post, yet they have both made an absolute ridicule of themselves all year long. All other models were about equally great though.

Washington Post deserves props for everything except their >97% chance Hagan wins reelection.
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