A Tale of Two Texans

[SPC]

Going off an idea started by ChairmanSanchez a while back...

Early 1983

Longtime Senator John Tower (R-TX) announced that he would not seek another term in office, sending the Texas congressional delegation into a tailspin. The frontrunner at this time appears to be Congressman George W. Bush, who as the son of a President will have major institutional advantages to fight off prospective primary challengers. However, many in the Texas Republican Party believe that, like his father, Bush may be too moderate and "Northeastern" to effectively represent the state in the United States Senate. So far the only other major entrants have been iconoclastic Congressman Ron Paul and newly-minted Republican Congressman Phil Gramm. Party insiders believe Bush has little to worry from either Paul or Gramm, as both congressmen are too right-wing to appeal to a broader electorate and defeat Bush.

Late 1975

President Bush knew he was in for a difficult bid to win a term in his own right. While the obscure figure entered the office with astronomically-high approval ratings, Bush's controversial decision to pardon former President Richard Nixon instantly earned him enmity from a substantial portion of the American people. Nevertheless, the President felt that, with his conservative record, a fight in the Republican primary would not be one of the hurdles he would have to clear. Thus, Bush dismissed concerns that the candidacies of former Governors Reagan (R-CA) and Agnew (R-MD) could pose a serious threat to the incumbent's nomination.

[SPC]

Flashback

Fall 1978

Regardless of how the national environment went, 1978 was a good year for the Republican Party of Texas. Ron Paul, elected in a 1976 special election as a fluke before losing in November, stunningly won back his Lake Jackson-based congressional seat against incumbent Robert Gammage, vowing to oppose the debasement of the currency by the Washington establishment. As Reagan's most prominent supporter in the state of Texas, Paul's victory stood as the greatest illustration of the contrast between sentiment in Texas and the nation as a whole. Meanwhile, in Lubbock, recently-married oil businessman George W. Bush was able to exploit goodwill toward his more prominent father to win a congressional seat against Kent Hance. Other notable Republican pickups occured in East Dallas, where Tom Pauken defeated Jim Mattox, and West Texas, where Tom Loeffler won retiring Bob Kreuger's seat. Less impressively, conservative Democrat Phil Gramm won a Fort Worth-based district over token Republican opposition.
 

Summer 1968

While Richard Nixon prevailed in the contest for the Republican nomination, he did not earn that title without serious opposition from Governors Romney (R-MI), Reagan (R-CA), and Rockefeller (R-NY). Thus, Nixon felt that his choice of a running mate should be one that would guarantee the Eastern Establishment's support for his candidacy in November, unlike their abandonment of Senator Goldwater four years prior. It was in this mindset that the former Vice-President selected a first-term congressman from Houston and son of a prominent former Senator as his running mate. Nixon's decision proved pivotal to his success, as his narrow victory in Texas proved to be just barely enough to give Nixon an Electoral College majority.

[SPC]

Rocky Road

Spring 1984

With Congressman Bush, or "Dubya" as constituents affectionately referred to him on the campaign trail, holding massive leads in the polls and endorsements from most of the Republican delegation, the only question heading into the primary was whether Bush would obtain a majority of the vote and avoid a runoff with one of his underfunded competitors. Prominent national conservative organizations largely sat the contest out, given the multitude of competitors who could plausibly claim to be the "true conservative" in the race. Despite this advantage, Bush obliged his opponents by participating in a public access debate. As Congressman Paul was not able to attend due to a vote in the House of Representatives, his college-age son Randall had to appear in his stead. Ordinarily, a forum with fewer than 300 viewers would have little to no impact on the election. However, in this instance, the embarrassment of a sitting Congressman being verbally lambasted by a college student for a history of voting for Democratic budget deals proved to have a slightly greater impact.

Bush had another overlooked obstacle in the road to the Senate. The race for the Democratic presidential nomination was still hotly contested, while Republicans had settled their nomination battle early. Moderate former Congressman Bob Krueger was the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic primary for Senate, and thus many Democrats sought to wreak havoc on the Republican side by voting for one of Bush's opponents, and thus forcing a runoff. Given Krueger's narrow defeat in the 1978 contest, many Democrats were optimistic about their chances of capturing the seat if Bush had trouble winning his party's primary.

Texas Senate Primary Results (GOP) Congressman George W. Bush 44% Congressman Ron Paul 22% Congressman Phil Gramm 17% State Representative Ray Hutchison 11% State Senator Hank Grover 4%

Texas Senate Primary Results (Dems) Congressman Bob Krueger 56% State Senator Lloyd Doggett 35%

Winter 1976

Throughout 1975, President Bush had declined to acknowledge the candidacies of his primary opponents, much less debate them. Instead, White House confidantes such as Chief of Staff Richard Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and Congressman James Baker had concurred with the President's strategy of running on a theme of optimism, while focusing the bulk of his resources toward attacking the various members on the divided Democratic field, featuring such diverse characters as Senator Henry Jackson (D-WA), Senator Frank Church (D-ID), Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA), Congressman Mo Udall (D-AZ), and Governor George Wallace (D-AL). Privately, however, the President's advisers feared that they may be underestimating the appeal of those that felt betrayed by the policy of detente and the prospect of retrocession of the Panama Canal to Panamanian control.

Governor Reagan won the Iowa caucuses with 41% of the vote to President Bush's 36%, with Governor Agnew lagging far behind at. While President Bush did not campaign substantially in Iowa, persons closed to the White House feared that failing to win the contest would only bolster the efforts of the conservative wing of the Party. These fears were aggravated by the withdrawal of Governor Agnew from the race. Agnew dismissed the incumbent as a "nattering nabob of negativism" and threw his weight behind Ronald Reagan in anticipation of the New Hampshire primary. With many Independent voters choosing to cast their ballot in the crowded Democratic primary, the Republican primary in New Hampshire featured an uncharacteristically right-wing electorate. Consequently, President Bush had an unhappy night as returns came in showing him leading the former actor by a narrow 52%-46% margin.

Note: a previous reporting of this story incorrectly reported the results of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. These errors have been corrected in this updated version of the facts.

[SPC]

This is sick. What was Agnew's angle? Did he run as his 1960's Rockefeller Republican incarnation, or his 1970's populist conservative persona?

Agnew undergoes a similar transformation as IRL, with Nixon's choice of Bush as his running-mate serving as the impetus to make him a right-wing critic of the Nixon (and later Bush) administration.

[SPC]

The Grass is Always Greener

Early 1984

The Democratic presidential field appeared to be set, with Walter Mondale being the establishment favorite to face the Republican nominee and various challengers, such as Senator Gary Hart (D-CO), Senator John Glenn (D-OH), and Reverend Jesse Jackson running insurgent candidacies. However, one two-term Governor from the Upper South had a history of defying the odds before, and appeared more than ready to do so again. Little-known Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR) launched his candidacy at the start of the New Year, and occupied the entirety of the next two months in New Hampshire. The move paid off for Clinton, as the obscure 37-year old instantly become a household name after nearly beating the Vice-President in the state. Clinton rapidly swept most of the contests of the next two weeks. "Slick Willie," as Clinton came to be known, was clearly a major threat to Mondale, who failed to win a single contest outside of his native Midwest. Nevertheless, Mondale remained optimistic that he would be the nominee, confident that the system of proportional representation and superdelegates would allow him to prevail over a man he considered lacking in beef.

Early 1976

With Watergate fresh in the public's minds and signs of a recession setting in, many Democrats eagerly vied for the nomination, believing that would be tantamount to election against the unpopular President Bush. Many voters thought that a Washington outsider would be needed in order to cover up the stench of corruption from the last administration, and little-known former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA) proved the perfect candidate to fulfill this role. Carter gained momentum and name recognition from upset wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, and one-by-one eliminated the viability of his better known opponents, beating Wallace in North Carolina, Udall in Wisconsin, and Jackson in Pennsylvania. While liberals backed Brown and Church in a last ditch effort to stop Carter, their efforts appeared futile as Carter continued to win the majority of primaries. In a strange turn of events, the Democrats had the less contentious nomination process that year.

[SPC]

The Sagebrush Rebellion

Summer 1984

The Bush camp dismissed concerns about the runoff election as a "minor setback," considering Paul a "gadfly" and a "distraction" from his real opponent, Krueger. However, this hubris only further motivated right-wing activists from across the country to descend upon Texas. Bush earned the ire of the right, not only due to his voting record, which was virtually identical to his father's protégé and successor in Congress, moderate James Baker (R-TX), but due to his insistence on abandoning the supply-side economics favored by figures such as Reagan, Gramm, Jack Kemp (R-NY) in favor of a more "compassionate conservatism." Ironically, Paul himself was hardly a fan of supply-side economics, noting that the idea was too permissive of deficit spending. Nevertheless, endorsements for Paul, the "David" standing up to the "Goliath" Bush, started to pour in, ranging from freshman Senator Barry Goldwater, Jr. (R-CA) to Richard Viguerie to previously uncommitted Congressman Tom Pauken. Much to the surprise of both campaigns, Ronald Reagan himself endorsed Paul, returning the favor to a man who backed his campaign when few thought it would succeed. Despite events that transpired over the last eight years, Reagan was still held in high esteem among the Texas Republican base.

Bush sought to counter Paul's momentum by reinforcing his institutional backing and emphasizing his electability, pointing to polls that showed his opponent trailing Krueger by over twenty points. President Bush himself made several campaign stops with his son, voraciously attacking Paul as wanting to "gut our nation's defense" and "break our promises to the nation's elderly." The Republican National Senatorial Committee intervened to the tunes of millions of dollars in attack ads, leaving no stone of Paul's life or alleged policy positions unturned. Momentum began to swing back to Bush's side, much to the relief of the Republican establishment. With one week left until the runoff election, Bush once again turned his focus away from the all-but-certain primary victory and geared his campaign toward a general election audience.

Spring 1976

President Bush managed to obtain brief respite from his shocking loss in New Hampshire with overwhelming victories in the Massachusetts and Vermont primaries. However, Bush was not out of the wilderness yet in securing the nomination. The next month saw the incumbent lose critical contests in Florida, South Carolina, Illinois, Kansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. Bush pithily dismissed Governor Reagan as a practitioner of "voodoo economics" and charged that a Reagan victory would erode any progress made with the Soviets over the last eight years. Reagan countered with attacking that the "progress" with Mr. Bush referred to was nothing less than the surrender of Indochina and Eastern Europe to Communist control.

Bush obtained decisive wins in New York, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania over the next month. Bush shifted his focus toward going on the offensive against Reagan, pouring money to states such as Georgia, Indiana, and Nebraska and dispatching Vice-President Ford to campaign with the President in Michigan. Reagan responded to Bush's alleged comeback with a rash decision made only after incessant bickering among the insurgent's campaign staff. Reagan would devote substantial resources to the President's home state of Texas. The Governor had to embark on this mission virtually alone, with newly-elected Congressman Ron Paul being the only prominent elected official in the state willing to support him against the favorite son. Pundits mocked Reagan as desperate for a victory. Nevertheless, Reagan remained optimistic that his plan would work, noting the large and receptive crowds he received when speaking in Houston.

[SPC]

Hmmm... I would think that Bush would fare better than Ford, given his combination of Southern and New England history, whereas Gerry was running solely as a Michiganian. Thus, I would assume that H.W. would have an edge in the South that Ford lacked, while still being able to tie in the North, and that Reagan's real life campaign problems (a surprising loss in New Hampshire) would persist.

I had considered this a potential obstacle to Reagan posing a serious threat to Bush's renomination, hence why I figured that Reagan's campaign would have to gain steam earlier in order for Bush to perform equivalently to Ford IRL. I thought that given Bush's 1980 Iowa caucus win that a New Hampshire upset would be more plausible, but now that I think about it Iowa is probably one of the few states where Bush could probably underperform Ford. Once we accept Reagan's unlikely New Hampshire win prima facie, I do not think that the subsequent Southern primary victories are as implausible.

[SPC]

The Shot Heard 'Round the World

Summer 1984

The younger Bush may have let his guard down too soon against his seemingly trivial opponent. Just when "Dubya" appeared to be in the clear to sweep the primary, the Krueger campaign leaked a report to the media detailing the Republican frontrunner's DUI arrest in Maine from eight years prior, while his father was President. The fact that President's son endured no substantive punishment for his crime reinforced the notion that Bush was a beneficiary of privilege, and could not relate to the problems of native Texans.

The Democrats got their wish when Republicans went on to nominate the weaker general election candidate as a consequence of their meddling. Paul won by less than a percentage point statewide, overcoming large deficits in the major urban centers with strong showings in Galveston and most rural areas of the state (exclusing Bush's congressional district.) Paul's victory map looked strikingly similar to Reagan's performance in the presidential primary eight years prior.

Bush vowed to be a good sport about his defeat and campaigned heavily for Paul over the next few months. While national Republicans would ordinarily have been more than happy to abandon Paul's campaign in favor of more lucrative opportunities in Kentucky, Michigan, and West Virginia, strategists fear that Krueger trouncing Paul by too lopsided of a margin would help Governor Clinton win the state against the Republican nominee, a hefty electoral price to pay.

Summer 1976

Governor Reagan's plan, dismissed by almost everyone as a harebrained scheme, prevailed against all expectation. Largely propelled by landslide margins from the Galveston area, Reagan scored a 51%-49% victory in the President's home state. While Bush vowed to continue his campaign to all the remaining primary states, the defeat that transpired right under the incumbent's nose did not bode well for his performance in the remaining primaries. Although the remaining contests all had close margins, Reagan swept all of them save Rhode Island, leaving Bush little opportunity to recover from his mortal wound. As it became abundantly clear that Reagan would have a sufficient number of delegates to claim the nomination on the first ballot, Bush suspended his campaign and endorsed Reagan.

Privately, Reagan realized that party unity presented the sole hope of retaining the White House amid the last four years of corruption, partisanship, and malaise. Accordingly, Reagan phoned the President almost immediately after his withdrawal, offering Bush the opportunity to resume the Vice-Presidency. Despite his deeply felt feelings of wounded prime, Bush reluctantly acceded to the Governor's offer. If the Republicans were to have any hope of prevailing against Governor Carter, the Reagan/Bush ticket would be best positioned to deliver it.

[SPC]

Silver Lining

Late Summer 1984

Future prospects for the 38-year old congressman looked grim. He had just been defeated in a statewide by one of the most extreme members of Congress for a rare opportunity at an open Senate seat. Bush's next best opportunities for attaining a noteworthy statewide office would be in 1986, where he would face strong competition in the primary from former Governor Bill Clements, or in 1988, where Senator Lloyd Bentsen would be a heavy favorite for re-election. Bush's father attempted negotiating with _____ to tap his son as his running mate, but even _____ expressed a degree of skepticism at selecting a three-term congressman who just lost a Senate primary to be a tax evasion charge away from the Presidency. While Bush remained supportive of the Republican ticket in Texas, his efforts at restoring his brand appeared to be in vain.

Providence came from unexpected places, but not without strings attached. Clinton adviser James Carville had advised the young Democratic nominee to choose an elder statesman from the party, while relegating regional balance to a secondary role. Consequently, Clinton selected Senator Lloyd Bentsen to join the Democratic ticket. Bush would get the vacant Senate seat he so desired (most likely in a 1985 special election), but only if the Democrats won the White House. Bush was placed in the precarious situation of publicly working toward one outcome while privately longing for the opposite.

Late Summer 1976

Bush's cold feet over agreeing to be in the back seat of the Republican ticket began shortly after his acceptance. The Carter campaign wasted no time in attacking the presumptive Republican nominee as a jingoistic extremist, and successfully cultivated his image as an outsider. The Reagan/Bush ticket consistently faced double digit losses in the polls, and President Bush privately feared that being on the losing ticket this year would greatly hamper any attempts at a political rehabilitation.

Bush's reservations came to a head shortly before the Republican National Convention. After a heated argument between Reagan and Bush, ostensibly over the retention of Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the next administration, Bush angrily stormed off and announced his withdrawal from the ticket. This left Reagan mere hours to select a replacement, with no time to properly vet any of the alternate nominees. Knowing that a game changer would be required to reverse his electoral disadvantage, Reagan went all-in with a high-risk choice.

[SPC]

Unraveling?

Fall 1984

Internal polling for the _____ campaign showed that the Bentsen bounce had largely faded, and Clinton was polling about even with the Republican nominee. The rebound in Republican national numbers lifted the chances for candidates at the state level, and Krueger's bland and uncharismatic campaign did nothing to abate this effect in Texas, where Paul had now pulled within single digits of the moderate Democrat. Conservative activists once again carpet-bombed the Lone Star state with mailers, tying Krueger to congressional Democrats while touting Paul's record of never supporting a tax increase. More crucially, the Republican standard bearer's joint appearances with Paul while campaigning in Texas helped reinforce the image that Paul was not the tinfoil hat-wearer that his opponents made him out to be.

Bush continued to lend his support to both Paul and the Republican nominee in hopes of recapturing the good graces of the conservative base, regardless of what office he would ultimately seek in the future. Unbeknownst to Bush, his father authorized the opposition researchers for his son's ill-fated primary campaign to share their findings with the Krueger camp, both to seek retribution and to ultimately restore the younger Bush's political career.

Fall 1976

In the aftermath of the Republican National Convention, it appeared that Bush had severely miscalculated by leaving the ticket. The enigmatic Agnew's literal debut on the national stage during his Vice-Presidential nomination acceptance speech won the hearts of Republicans everywhere, as his alliteratively eviscerated the effete elitists comprising the Democratic ticket. Agnew's unrestrained delivery won over even many moderate members of the party, who while distrustful of Reagan's demeanor once again felt energized going into the general election. The debates transpired without major gaffes on both sides, with neither Republican candidate stepping into such obvious traps as understating Soviet influence in Eastern Europe or blaming all of America's wars on Democrats. Reagan's momentum from the convention never stalled, and looked on pace to overtake the polished Georgia governor.

A Republican victory would put Bush's rehabilitation indefinitely on hold. Bush would settle for nothing short of another term of the Presidency, and a Reagan victory would postpone such an attempt until 1984 at the earliest, when newly christened conservative favorite Agnew would undoubtedly be the overwhelming frontrunner for the nomination. Any later than that, Bush figured he would have been out of the public purview for too long to make a serious attempt at reclaiming his office. Bush clearly needed to do something to sabotage Reagan's candidacy, and naturally responded eagerly when his subordinates proposed a strategy to do exactly that.

[SPC]

Of Mice and Men

Late 1984

While the Krueger campaign did indeed receive information from former members of the Bush campaign, some of the "information" regarding improper business dealings on the part of Paul turned out to be a dubious validity. Thus, the attacks Krueger aired left egg on the Democratic candidate's face, as Paul repudiated the charges and accused Krueger of being a "liar" and "campaigning in the gutter." Paul's strategic playing the victim card from Krueger's attacks proved fortuitous for the conservative Congressman, as he prevailed in one of the closest Senate elections in the nation.

Paul's Senate victory did not occur in isolation. The Republican ticket prevailed in Texas as well, putting them just barely over the top in the Electoral College. Clinton, while publicly chivalrous in defeat, privately disdained Bentsen for failing to deliver his home state and vowed to mount another national campaign in four years. Meanwhile, many former Bush confidantes privately advised _____ to select Bentsen for a consilatory Cabinet post, but _____ patently refused, seeing Bentsen as ideologically incompatible with his ambitious policy goals. This intransigence infuriated the elder Bush, who vowed to do everything in his power to secure political success for his son. The younger Bush, however, was not as eager to reenter the political scene, sensing his loss as a sign from above to reexamine his relationship with God, alcohol, and his family.

Late 1976

The seemingly ingenious plan approved by a desperate Bush came across as imprudent in execution. The Bush campaign had focused the crux of its opposition research on finding impropriety in California to little avail, while even a rudimentary investigation of Maryland politics would have delivered exactly what Bush coveted. Failing to find anything incriminating on the Republican ticket that could be disseminated in time for the election, Bush's aides concocted a scheme to try to create a sympathy boost for Carter.

On the campaign trail, the former Georgia governor was attacked in the face by a vicious swamp rabbit, released by an unknown member of the audience. However, rather than having the intended effect of drawing support to Carter, the incident merely made comedic fodder out of the once overwhelming favorite to win. Carter's strong performance in key Midwestern states could not overcome Reagan's wins in several Southern states (including Texas), enough to mitigate Carter's regional advantage and achieve a narrow national victory.

While the results naturally disappointed Bush, they also provided opportunity. The retention of many Bush loyalists by the new administration would enable the former President to have critical influence on events from behind the throne. Additionally, an additional four years to uncover improper conduct would undoubtedly be more fruitful.

[SPC]

Early 1985

Even though the President was beginning to show some signs of independence, with his defiance of Bush's recommendation of Bentsen, the elder Bush still held considerable influence over the President's decisions. Thus, the astute observer would not be surprised by the nomination of former Governor Bill Clements (R-TX) to serve as the new Defense Secretary. In addition to having served as the Deputy Secretary under Bush, the appointment of Clements would also leave an open contest for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Texas in 1986. Both of these would serve as crucial elements in the elder Bush's grand vision.

Meanwhile, the new Senator Paul quickly established a good working relationship between many of his new colleagues, including Senators Goldwater (R-AZ; R-CA), Symms (R-ID), Helms (R-NC), Laxalt (R-NV), and McClure (R-ID). Bush was uncomfortable with the influence Paul began to exercise over the conservative wing of the Senate, but nevertheless saw the potential for Paul's steadfast devotion to government oversight to be used to his advantage.

Early 1977

On the surface, Reagan appeared to have been the recipient of good fortune, as the economy began to recover from the previous recession. However, this proved a mixed blessing, as outgoing President Bush had pressured Fed Chairman Arthur Burns to rapidly increase the money supply throughout 1976, in hopes that such a policy would force his successor, whether it be Reagan or Carter, to deal with either massive inflation or crippling stagnation, if they chose to confront the inflation.

Bush's plan for personal vindication was a two-pronged one. While Reagan was left to inherit an economic time bomb, Bush's allies within the intelligence apparatus crafted an unorthodox investigation into public corruption that would prove coincidentally fortuitous toward the former President's aspirations.

[SPC]

Ackbar

1986

Former President Bush had urged the President to allow Quayle to take on a greater leadership role within his administration. However, _____ had begun to resent Bush's influence over his administration, and sidelined Quayle out of spite. Vice-President Quayle was not a man particularly known for his intellect, as President _____ largely suspected when selecting him for the office. Thus, Quayle had little reason to be suspicious when Secretary Clements went to U.S. Naval Observatory one morning asking for special approval for a classified operation, first suggested by one of Clements's advisors. Clements proposed to the Vice-President a plan to secure the release of American hostages by the militant group Hezbollah by providing the Iranian regime with weapons with which to fight the Iraqis. The profits from these sales of dubious legality would then be used to fund the Contra rebellion against the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. The Vice-President was largely dumbfounded by the big words used by Clements in his plan, but appreciated the dignity that Clements treated Quayle compared to virtually every other member of the administration. Thus, Quayle gladly signed off on the operation without questioning why the Vice-President's signature was required for a Defense Department plan.

1978

Despite public rhetoric, President Reagan privately distrusted Vice-President Agnew, suspecting the man of being a moderate Republican disguising his agenda with fierce authoritarian rhetoric. Thus, Reagan largely relegated Agnew to the role of attack dog against the President's opponents, with little input on policy matters. While Agnew appreciated his public role, as he believed it would improve his chances of being the Republican standard bearer in the 1984 election, the Vice-President desired a more prominent role within the administration. Thus, Agnew was delighted when an Arab sheikh visited U.S. Naval Observatory one morning, promising a generous reward if the Vice-President could make progress toward liberalizing gambling policy in the United States. While Agnew realized he was in little position to implement the sheikh's goals, Agnew was never one to turn down a free "incentive" toward implementing a policy. The sheikh's handlers made an important phone call shortly after Agnew accepted the sheikh's briefcase.

[SPC]

Execution

1986-1987

For a moment, stars seemed to have aligned in order to ensure another Bush presidency in 1992. Bush's eldest son, having conquered his alcohol addiction, stood on the verge of a political comeback as polls showed the former President's son leading Governor White (D-TX). The sitting Vice-President, usually the frontrunner for his party's nomination after a President's retirement, inadvertently placed his fingerprints on a political scandal worse than Watergate, which would probably be "accidentally" leaked to the press sometime in 1991, paving the way for a two-term Governor with extensive personal connections to be perfectly positioned to assume the Vice-President's place as "next-in-line" for the Presidency.

Unfortunately for the Governor-elect, real-world events did not go according to plan. A leak by an Iranian dissident to a Lebanese newspaper revealed the clandestine program to the world, and the Democratic Congress demanded to get to the bottom of it. In order to demonstrate bipartisanship on the matter, the Senate established a special Iran-Contra committee in order to investigate the extent of executive knowledge on the scandal. Testimony revealed that, while President Agnew was completely oblivious regarding the dealings of his Defense Department, Vice-President Quayle had intimate knowledge of the project and even gave special approval for it. Calls for Quayle's impeachment rang clear on both sides of the aisle.

While many of the Democrats on the committee were content with having taken down the Vice-President, Ranking Member Ron Paul demanded further investigation. Further testimony revealed that the CIA had in fact used some of their funds in order to influence domestic politics for the benefit of the Republican Party. The most prominent recipient of these funds turned out to be none other than the newly-elected Governor of Texas.

1978-1979

With Reagan facing increasing unpopularity due to renewed stagflation, an energy crisis (largely aggravated by instability in Iran), and foreign quagmires in Rhodesia and Angola, the 1978 midterms were disastrous for the Republicans, losing ground in both houses of Congress. While Democrats and moderate Republicans were already frustrated with Reagan's policies, seeing the former actor as an ideologue for conservative causes, the President's base also began to exhibit signs of frustration with their leader, particularly his failure to get a tax cut measure through a Democratic-controlled Congress and his perceived caving to congressional Democrats on taxation and budgetary matters. In the face of growing problems with the domestic economy and world affairs, President Reagan's consistent cheery optimism made the man seem oblivious and wholly unprepared for the office which he had assumed. Former President Bush, who appeared increasingly likely to launch a primary challenge against the man who unseated him in 1976, consistently led the President by nearly thirty points in primary polling.

[SPC]

Can we see maps for elections where the outcome has already been made clear (changes to '68 and possibly '72 due to Nixon's selection of Bush, and the 1976 GOP primaries and general election)?

Sure. I was excited to provide maps at first, but feared that they may draw attention away from the story.

Here is 1968:

Nixon/Bush 272
Humphrey/Muskie 221
Wallace/LeMay 45

1972 pretty much goes IRL.

1976 primary (up to May 1):

Reagan
Bush

1976 general:

Reagan/Agnew 275
Carter/Mondale 263

1984:

Agnew/Quayle 291
Clinton/Bentsen 247

[SPC]

Thanks. Will you be going over the themes of Agnew's election over Clinton later on?

To some extent. Agnew basically pulled into office on his predecessor's coattails, who reluctantly acquiested.

[SPC]

You Can't Always Get What You Want

1987-1988

What was intended to pave the way for another Bush presidency had blown up in the former President's son's face, and appeared poised to sink his own ambitions instead. With the younger Bush, Quayle, and Clements all facing either imminent indictment or the likelihood of impeachment, the elder Bush calculated in favor of pulling the dead man's switch he had in his possession for nearly a decade. Suddenly, news reports regarding American complicity in foreign policy atrocities and the involvement of several leading officials in the Iran-Contra scandal were overshadowed by revelations from the FBI that President Agnew had accepted bribes from an undercover agent posing as an Arab sheikh as part of a sting operation. While Agnew faced staunch criticism over the bribery allegations, conservatives largely stood by the President on the basis that the operation represented entrapment and a prosecutorial witch-hunt. Thus, Agnew and Quayle both survived their respective impeachment attempts, but not without significant damage to their party. A re-election campaign was out of the question for the two figures. Likewise, Bush's governorship survived as he somehow cast the allegations against him as a partisan crusade.

With the litany of scandals and a market crash caused by the burst in the savings-and-loans bubble, the Republican nominee looked headed to certain defeat in the coming election. Due to an interconnected web of peer relationships, Senator Paul deferred to Senator Goldwater, Jr., who in turn deferred to establishment frontrunner Senator Dole (R-KS) for the role of sacrificial lamb in the pending election. Dole picked HUD secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY) to serve as his running mate while he was defeated in a landslide by 1984 nominee Bill Clinton, who picked Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA) in order to ensure the twelve year streak of Greek-Americans in the executive branch continued.

1979-1980

Bush's lead in the primary contest evaporated due to circumstances beyond his control. The former President could not have anticipated that the new Iranian regime would take American hostages, resulting in a rally-around-the-flag effect around the incumbent President. However, the elder Bush was resourceful enough to use the resources at his disposal to regain lost ground. Vice-President Agnew, after receiving a mysterious phone call sometime in late 1979, made a speech excoriating his boss for his weakness on foreign policy and the energy crisis, and making the unprecedented move of backing Bush over the sitting President. While Agnew's speech lacked the energy of many of his prior public appearances, appearing to have been made under duress, it did mark a turning point where conservatives felt comfortable not backing the President who they perceived as betraying them after taking office.

The 1980 primaries shaped up similarly to those in 1976, with many close contests, and Bush doing exceptionally well in the Northeast while slightly underperforming in the South. The turning point came in April, as President Reagan's attempted rescue attempt of the hostages in Iran failing, largely due to the military bringing two fewer helicopters than the President requested. This time, Bush swept his home state and swept the remaining primaries. Reagan conceded the nomination to the man he ousted four years ago. As his running mate, Bush believed that the incumbent Vice-President's popularity with the base and ample blackmail material outweighed his disloyalty, and selected him to once again be the ticket's running mate against Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), who vowed to serve only one term.