Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016

[SPC]

1. Clinton (I find this much less likely than anybody else on this board, although given the cluster**** that will be the 2016 Republican primaries, she takes the top spot both due to the certainty of her being the Democratic nominee and the possibility that the GOP will once again find a way to lose)

2. Christie (Like McCain, I think rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. I previously thought his bully personality would get in the way of either winning the primary or the general election, but now I believe that that abrasiveness will actually work to his advantage with both electorates.)

3. Paul (He's doing the work needed to appeal to a general election audience, and could benefit from a split in the field between palatable alternatives. Remember that his father nearly won Iowa and New Hampshire; imagine how the 2012 race could have gone if Ron Paul had been marginally more palatable to Republican primary voters. Of course, this relies on a narrow set of circumstances; if either the far right or the center of the party manages to coalesce behind a single candidate before the caucus, then Paul's window of opportunity closes.)

4. Cruz (With the rise of several palatable alternatives, Cruz might be competing only with Carson and Perry for the far right's backing, and thus like Paul could benefit from a narrow set of circumstances where the establishment vote is split between several candidates. The best scenario for this is if Paul either wins New Hampshire and the establishment decides to back a weaker general election candidate in exchange for retaining Republican orthodoxy on foreign policy and civil liberties, or if New Hampshire is close enough between two establishment candidates that neither of them can decisively win over that segment of the electorate. As for the general, Cruz is no idiot, and would probably pivot enough to the center once the nomination is wrapped up to prove much more competitive than he is currently. The shutdown will have occurred eons ago by the time 2016 rolls along.)

5. Walker (if he can emerge as a compromise between the two predominant factions before the primaries start, he stands a good chance of winning the nomination. He has gone three election cycles without making any career-ending gaffes, and does not seem like one who could easily be pigeonholed as plutocratic or racist, so would probably be sufficiently viable in a general election.)