Rand Paul.
Walker's getting bloodied up, Bush has too much of his fathers appearance of "competence" and too little of his brothers charisma or at least ability to rile up any support from the base, Christie is WAY too bloodied up, Ryan doesn't care, Rubio is a joke, Cruz can't win, and the rest nobody cares about or will care about (and yes, I'm including Thomas Dewey re-incarnate). It's too early, but I think Paul has a very good shot.
I certainly hope you're right. While I generally pessimistic about the Republican Party ever nominating somewhat both ideologically sound and electable (in the back of my mind I sense that they will successfully resurrect Bush or Christie
a la McCain 2008), I suspect that Paul may be well positioned to replicate the McCain 2008 strategy. Based on his father's iconoclasm and deviations from GOP orthodoxy on foreign affairs and crime, Paul seems well-positioned to win moderate and Independent crossover voters, as paradoxical as that sounds. While Paul intuitively seems like the best choice for the Kemp/Forbes/Romney conservatives, they may at least initially prefer a candidate more palatable to Republican fiscal orthodoxy, such as Ryan, Rubio, or Walker. Despite his evangelical pandering, the Falangist wing will ultimately coalesce behind one candidate (Cruz, Carson, or Huckabee) who will proceed to go absolutely nowhere besides winning Iowa and a few Southern primaries. That leaves the somewhat conservatives, who most likely will coalesce behind the respectable establishment option that emerges after the early primaries (Bush, Christie, Dewey, Walker, or Kasich). The latter choice will most likely be the nominee unless Paul can successfully use the
divide et impera strategy.
The way I see it, the most fruitful strategy to achieve this would be to skip Iowa (and consequently, lay off the evangelical rhetoric) and devote resources to New Hampshire and South Carolina. A win in New Hampshire on the backs of Independents and some fiscons would leave the establishment forces in disarray trying to arrange a deus ex machina event for their preferred candidate in the South Carolina primary
a la Gingrich 2012. Touting realism while avoiding touching the third rail like his father would be the least bad tactic to employ here. Ultimately, the goal is to convince somewhat conservative voters that holding out for their preferred establishment option is not a viable alternative, and voting for Paul is the only way to avert a general election catastrophe with a nominee from the Falangist wing. As consolation, Paul can stick somewhat acceptable to both establishment types and general election voters in the VP spot, and hope that John Hinckley, Jr. doesn't have any copycats.
Poll
