Palestinian Authority to Hold First Election in 15 Years

[PSOL]

Hamas is in a much weaker position to do much of anything since 2005, even with it having more grassroots support than Fatah.

For one, they are immensely isolated on the international arena, what with the Gulf States cutting back funding to them in favor of a more reconciliatory approach since the 2010s. Hamas then further burned bridges with Iran and Syria by backing the Islamists in Syria, losing a major source of funding, arms, and aid in keeping the peace in the Gaza Strip. Now their major partner that’s left is Turkey, which is already financing other quagmires and is in a serious economic crisis.

Excluding the structural issues of Gaza being under siege by Israel both by sea and land—indeed fishermen in the region often deal with harassment by the Israeli navy—the lack of funding has left the Gaza Strip in awful state. The grand standing by Hamas in 2014 did not help as well. What this has done is left Gazans angry to start prolonged protests against Hamas’s autocratic rule, with Hamas unable to use its campaigns against Israel or providing stability to Gaza as a selling point.

Even worse, the rise of ISIS in Gaza and Iranian funding of PIJ has left the Islamist scene fractured with Hamas now having to deal with inner threats and competition along with the border situation with Egypt, which for several reasons the Military government has closed the border, crippling the economy of the Gaza Strip.

With rising costs, angry populace under its rule, international isolation, and now competition for the same support base, it’s hard to see it get much worse. Only problem it has, with the PA introducing electoral reform to ensure that the absolute victory in the West Bank is impossible. Even with rigging in Gaza, the West Bank might not fall to Hamas, and breaking with the rest of the Palestine here would cripple their support even further. Even if they win a majority, which is possible given that Fatah are corrupt autocrats who’ve failed at building mass support since the death of Arafat, informal power sharing is not negotiable unless they want to risk a civil war.

I have next to no idea what’s happening recently with Fatah, the left wing parties, or the Rightist Arab nationalist camp what with the ever changing reality of 2020 and the lack of polls or even material in English. Most likely the left wing will form a United bloc like they did in the past.

[PSOL]

Will the election result actually be recognized by the losing side though? Seems far more likely that the current status quo (division of Gaza and West Bank) simply continues

Hamas rejecting the election now of all times would probably lead to a galvanized opposition of them not just among most of the Palestinian people, but in Gaza as well. I would imagine if they would conduct any sort of rejection or rigging of the results, a revolt against them would occur.

[PSOL]

Will the election result actually be recognized by the losing side though? Seems far more likely that the current status quo (division of Gaza and West Bank) simply continues

Hamas rejecting the election now of all times would probably lead to a galvanized opposition of them not just among most of the Palestinian people, but in Gaza as well. I would imagine if they would conduct any sort of rejection or rigging of the results, a revolt against them would occur.

What I meant is that even if Hamas loses the election, their structures in Gaza won't just disappear. I can't really see how the President would reestablish control under those conditions. Even Hamas struggles to keep down the (even) more radical elements of Gazan society, so it would be rather surprising if Fatah actually gains control over the strip

I would assume it would most likely be through a barrel of a gun.