Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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UK considering sending Armored Cars to Ukraine???

Britain is drawing up plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times. Options include sending a protected patrol vehicle, such as the Mastiff, or a vehicle like the Jackal, which can be used as a reconnaissance or long-range patrol vehicle, a ministry of defence report said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/07/russia-ukraine-war-nato-foreign-ministers-to-meet-as-zelenskiy-dismisses-fresh-sanctions-live-news

We've got lots left over from Iraq and Afghanistan that the government have been itching to ditch anyway. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

Shame we've got sod all tank or SPG stocks to give them.

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What I don't understand is why NATO is not training Ukrainians right now to use Patriot SAM.

There are only so many S-300 SAM left to give.

The US won't give Ukraine Patriots because they don't want to risk them being captured.

Patriots are also ridiculously expensive for what they are, the US isn't going to give them away. I mean they aren't even giving Slovakia a Patriot battery in return for their S-300, just temporarily operating one while the Slovaks find a replacement.

The West's ground-based air defence systems in general are not all that capable. They're really designed for short to medium range protection of specific high priority targets like airfields and army bases. They aren't for long-range area denial of medium to high altitude threats. So even if the West wanted to give Ukraine such systems they wouldn't be as much use as those like the S-300.

Once the S-300s run out it's over for effective air defence.

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What I don't understand is why NATO is not training Ukrainians right now to use Patriot SAM.

There are only so many S-300 SAM left to give.

The US won't give Ukraine Patriots because they don't want to risk them being captured.

Patriots are also ridiculously expensive for what they are, the US isn't going to give them away. I mean they aren't even giving Slovakia a Patriot battery in return for their S-300, just temporarily operating one while the Slovaks find a replacement.

The West's ground-based air defence systems in general are not all that capable. They're really designed for short to medium range protection of specific high priority targets like airfields and army bases. They aren't for long-range area denial of medium to high altitude threats. So even if the West wanted to give Ukraine such systems they wouldn't be as much use as those like the S-300.

Once the S-300s run out it's over for effective air defence.

It is broadly true that the USA historically invested less in AD than the USSR, but there are a fair few European/joint American-European systems that would do much more for Ukraine than MANPADS.

A few people in the know have repeatedly referred to NASAMS in particular, which would at least provide medium-range air defence and which Ukraine has asked for. Like all modern AA, it uses sensitive radar technology, but it has previously been modified to use older radars (N.B. it’s not public how effective NASAMS was with this modification), and it’s much cheaper than the Patriot because it’s ammunition is a large, ageing stock of air-to-air missiles which are likely to go unused in the long run.

It would come with significant training and logistical issues, which is why training should already have begun outside Ukraine even if suppliers aren’t confident that they’ll eventually give the system to Ukraine. This also applies to fighter jets, which have historically been the bulk of Western “air defence.”

It’s also worth mentioning that there are other ex-Soviet/Russian systems besides the S-300, many of which are still operated by European allies of Ukraine.

NASAMS is OK, but it still will be hard to support offensive operations in the South with it, even if they managed to acquire enough systems. The other ex-Soviet systems are at most medium range fare that is similar to Western batteries like NASAMS.

Even if the Eastern European countries give up what is left of their ex-Soviet systems (which is being damaged by the US taking the piss and driving a hard bargain in backfilling capability), it isn't a long term - or even medium term - solution. The numbers are too small and attrition too high.

Despite all the wibbling about pilot training, It's hard to see how Ukraine can maintain a realistic air defence without jets like the F-16. That's just how NATO doctrine is set up.

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While several heads of government/state were in Kyiv already (Morawiecki, Janša, Fiala, von der Leyen, Hegar, Johnson) to meet with Zelenskyi, Scholz is campaigning for a regional election.

https://twitter.com/JuliusBetschka/status/1512825507913605138

Not really helping to recover from the massive reputation problem Germany has right now - also among Ukrainians (poll from March):



Roles of countries (friendly/neutral/hostile):
Poland: 96/2/0
Latvia: 85/9/0
UK: 86/7/1
US: 88/8/2
Czechia: 79/13/0
Slovakia: 74/15/0
Moldova: 69/23/1
Romania: 66/21/1
Slovenia: 59/22/1
Turkey: 66/28/2
France: 68/24/4
Georgia: 54/33/6
Germany: 57/33/6
Hungary: 45/27/12
China: 15/63/17
Belarus: 4/9/84
Russia: 0/1/98

Considering recent developments, I might assume numbers for Georgia, Germany and Hungary have worsened ever since.

While it's fair to have a go at them for being massively compromised, Germany has at least sent weapons to Ukraine. There has been no evidence whatsoever of French weapons in Ukraine, despite France having the only serious military left in the EU. It could just be because of the upcoming election, but I'm surprised there hasn't been much public criticism of this - nowhere near the extent of complaints about Germany.

The French have long played up European French sovereign independence in the face of American patronage, and yet when they are needed they've gone AWOL. What are other Europeans thinking about France?

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UK MoD seems to be testing out all the weapons. This is a Martlet/LMM and is brand new, not even in full service. It wasn't even announced we'd be sending them. Cheaper and easier than Starstreak for taking out drones, and can be used against ground targets too.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1513083814410694664?s=20&t=_mhu9_w7KWsB...

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What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

I can't see Macron getting an invite to Kyiv any time soon...

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I would take this with a heap of salt as previous such claims haven't come to much, but the Ukrainians are claiming to have struck and badly damaged the Moskva guided missile cruiser. It is the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, and the ship involved in the "Russian warship go **** yourself" exchange. They claim to have got it with two indigenous Neptune cruise missiles.

https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1514322877167898630?s=20&t=jEg3bZIvj...

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1514330567671783430?s=20&t=jEg3bZIvj...

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Although long in the tooth, the Moskva has the most comprehensive air defenses in the Black Sea Fleet, part of its role is providing anti-air cover for the others. So if it is gone the rest are more vulnerable if they move too far away from Crimean coast.

Edit: I notice "Tyre Trent" had the same idea,

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1514353218955976708?s=20&t=kXuBQM3WV...

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https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1516524100872724489?s=20&t=W5MBclQPCxqe...

Sending Ukraine the Sea Spear Brimstone variant was talked about before the war. The trouble is it isn't obvious how much use it would be, these don't have a large enough warhead to sink big ships. Sea Spear was originally designed to blow up swarms of Iranian fast attack boats.

But the idea of putting Brimstone on the back of technicals may have a far better use. The latest Brimstone 3 variant can also be ground-launched and is essentially an autonomous radar-guided missile. Instead of use against ships, these would be perfect for taking out rear echelon units like artillery/air defenses, as well as tanks without putting troops in danger. Would make a big difference to the battles in the South where everything is exposed. Hopefully we have enough to give them to make an effective rocket artillery.

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Interesting, the USAF have rapidly developed a new Switchblade-like loitering drone for the Ukrainians to use.

I'd guess designed for taking out artillery, with long range like the Switchblade 600 but maybe a simpler and easier to mass-produce warhead. You don't need a tandem if you aren't using it against MBTs.

https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status/1517152964355403777?s=20&t=3F1uFg_Vn...

https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1517155250011983878?s=20&t=3F1uFg_VnVe...

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Interesting, the USAF have rapidly developed a new Switchblade-like loitering drone for the Ukrainians to use.

I'd guess designed for taking out artillery, with long range like the Switchblade 600 but maybe a simpler and easier to mass-produce warhead. You don't need a tandem if you aren't using it against MBTs.

More info on this. So it has a long 6+ hrs flight time, is night-capable with thermal imaging, and is designed against medium armoured targets (so roughly anything below an MBT in protection). Wasn't a bad guess...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517331034639065088?s=20&t=ANlxN0M...

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/21/mystery-drone-air-force-new-weapon-ukraine-00026970

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Are we so outdated and stuck in the Cold War era, where now allegedly Superpowers are using dolphins as weapons of war?

I don't give a f**k about which Superpower used dolphins during the Cold War, but regardless have always believed that Dolphins should not be weapons of war and perhaps that might be a reason for "So Long and Thanks for All the Fish".

Satellite photos show Russia has placed trained dolphins at the entrance to a key Black Sea port, in a move that may be designed to help protect a significant Kremlin naval base there, according to a naval analyst.

The images, provided to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show two dolphin pens at the entrance to Sevastopol harbor in Crimea — which Russian forces annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

H I Sutton, a submarine analyst who first reported on the dolphins for the U.S. Naval Institute on Wednesday, said the pens were moved there in February, around the time of the invasion of Ukraine.

Since the 1960s, the U.S. Navy has trained dolphins and sea lions to help guard against underwater threats. According to marine experts, dolphins have the most sophisticated sonar known to science, making it relatively easy for them to detect mines and other potentially dangerous objects on the ocean floor that are hard to detect using electronic sonar.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/russian-military-dolphins-navy-ukraine/

Meanwhile we naturally have Douglas Adams "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" (4th book), so long and thanks for all the fish which ties back into the narrative of the previous three books,

You misunderstand, these are Russia's replacement generals.

At least they're more intelligent than the last lot.

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So as I thought, the UK are sending Brimstones 'over the ground' against land targets.

https://twitter.com/ForcesNews/status/1519632774252089345?s=20&t=xcMoXq77jWk...

Now all we need is to dangle them under those Reaper drones we're getting rid of, slap a self-defense pod under it, invite a Ukr pilot over to RAF Waddington to press the big red button, and Ukraine will be able to wipe out armoured columns at range.

Hell, better yet, give the Ukrainians the Protector prototype for some "field testing" with its 18 Brimstones. I'm sure General Atomics won't mind.

https://twitter.com/RoyalAirForce/status/1286618378627514369?s=20&t=xcMoXq77...

https://twitter.com/byMBDA/status/1019229487819616256?s=20&t=xcMoXq77jWkX_9k...

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Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

It's just an over-the-top tabloid headline. It's a bit more nuanced when you actually read the quote;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-declare-new-world-26828251

He said: “I would not be surprised . . . that he is probably going to declare on May Day that ‘we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people’.”

He continued: “Putin, having failed in nearly all objectives, may seek to consolidate what he's got . . . and just be a sort of cancerous growth within the country. We have to help Ukrainians effectively get the limpet off the rock and keep the momentum pushing them back.”

So all he is saying is Putin may call a general mobilization for the Ukraine war on the excuse that they're actually fighting NATO nazis in Ukraine too. This is nothing that hasn't been said before.

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https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5...

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

I can only hope this has the same effect as Hitler having repeatedly screwed up the German war effort by trying to micromanage and overrule his generals.

I am worried about the risk of him doing something extreme and having no supervision.

Like what? Invading another country and committing genocide?

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Can someone who understands strategy better than me explain what's happening with the Crimean Bridge? Has Ukraine made any moves to destroy it? If not, why not?

No sign of that yet. The answer to why is likely that they do not have the capability.

The bridge, being an obvious target, it thought to be well defended - particularly with air defenses. To bring down the bridge you'd need something with 1) the range to get there (it's a long way from the front lines), 2) the precision to hit the bridge, 3) that can penetrate the air defence, 4) has a warhead large enough, 5) and a warhead that is specialised for the anti-structure role.

I'm not aware of anything in Ukraine's inventory that is public knowledge with such a capability. About the closest would be the Neptune cruise missile, but it's still underpowered for the job in the warhead department and is just a standard frag warhead, it's not clear if it could get through, and we don't know if Ukraine has any left anyway.

At the moment the issue is slightly moot since Russia has a land bridge across southern Ukraine.

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American volunteer with a captured BMP-2. The inscription on the side is a Buddhist mantra written in Buryat. "Arya Baala goncok sume" It invokes the bodhisattva Avalokitesvara. It's sad to see colonized Asians fighting for Russian dreams of empire.
https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974/status/1521471813594849283

A bit disparaging to think that Buryats cannot be Russian?

Russian by citizenship and Russian by ethnicity are two different things. They even have different words for it, "русские" and  "россияне". The Buryats are being sent as to die as cannon fodder as you can see from casualty lists compiled by the media because they aren't "Russian" enough.

Related: Buryatia is the only Buddhist territory in Europe.

Buryatia is in Siberia, very far east, I think you may be confusing it with Kalmykia.

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Is it more or less near certain Russia is going to further escalate their presence on May 9th?

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov has firmly denied that Russia will declare war on May 9th.

So it's almost certain it will happen.

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Putin apologizes... to Israel for his foreign minister being such a moron.


https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1522260175536676866

Translation: Pretty please don't send Spike or Blue Spear to **** up my armed forces any more than they already have been.

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Take with a pinch of salt, but there are growing rumours that Russia's submarine fleet may get a new vessel.

There were rumours yesterday that the Admiral Makarov had been hit, but then not much corroborating evidence turned up.

Now there's growing signs an Admiral Grigorovich-class ship (which the Makarov is one of) may be in trouble near Snake Island. Notably these are modern ships, with the next most extensive anti-air cover after the Moskva.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1522507395750146048?s=20&t=eVAaFy2-MXRg...

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UK paper The Independent is now reporting it...

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1522532243679424513?s=20&t=DUU1u46NsA...

I wouldn't regard it as confirmed yet, still lacking firm evidence, but we'll see.

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This is claimed to be footage of the Makarov aflame taken by a drone. It isn't very good quality which raises some doubts, but the silhouette does at least appear to resemble an Admiral Grigorovich class.

https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1522577939669438466?s=20&t=7Q_-yLfsdq...

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I really wish it's true but the video does not appear convincing to me. Too CGI like. No indication of what platform recorded this video either.

It's possible, there's always loads of fakes that do the rounds.

Edit: I think it could indeed be a fake, using a game mod. Sneaky.

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By the way unlike Kharkov, Kyiv, and Luhansk/Donelson why was the southern front not an absolute disaster for Russians ?

What makes you think it hasn't been? The only reason the Russians got to Kherson appears to have been deficiencies in the Ukrainian defence in the south (rumoured due to a traitor in the SBU). It really shouldn't have fallen so quickly, if at all.

Beyond that they have repeatedly tried to reach Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kryvyi Rih and failed. They were prevented from reaching Odesa by a bunch of TDF and have been beaten back by the army into Kherson Oblast.

The problem for the Ukrainians retaking territory is that this region is entirely flat barren steppe with almost no cover. That means artillery is king, of which the Russians have far more of. The flat barren land also makes it difficult to hold territory, so the front lines are constantly changing. The Ukrainians have to wear down the Russians with more accurate fire and wait for more artillery.

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Who doesn't want a Tesco delivery van that can launch supersonic hunter-killer missiles?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1524806890143854592?s=20&t=e7piqS6...

This appears to be from a test fire/training exercise, but we already know it is in use.