2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Zaybay]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

Cause that's generally not how population growth works.

Population growth can shake things up heavily on the local level, but on the federal level, you need rather drastic changes in order to have major effects. Not only that, but also pop growth needs to be put into context by what's going on in the state, and in almost all instances, said context is way, way, way more important than pop growth.

Lets look at PA. The state is losing a CD, one that likely has to come from the GOP areas that lost population. Now, I know what you're thinking, "Isn't that good? The GOP lose a seat!". Sure, at first it sounds good...until you get into the domino effect. Cause of the population loss, suddenly a bunch of marginal seats have to take in new territory, territory that is heavily R. This outright endangers and probably kills those in the marginals: Cartwright, Lamb, and Wild (and in some cases even Houlahan). This also takes the competitive PA-10 off the table once more. This is all with a court-drawn map, by the way, same as the current map.

In summary, just cause the D areas gained in pop doesn't mean it automatically translates to greater electoral prospects.

[Zaybay]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

Cause that's generally not how population growth works.

Population growth can shake things up heavily on the local level, but on the federal level, you need rather drastic changes in order to have major effects. Not only that, but also pop growth needs to be put into context by what's going on in the state, and in almost all instances, said context is way, way, way more important than pop growth.

For instance, with PA. The state is losing a CD, one that likely has to come from the GOP areas that lost population. Now, I know what you're thinking, "Isn't that good? The GOP lose a seat!". Sure, at first it sounds good...until you get into the domino effect. Cause of the population loss, suddenly a bunch of marginal seats have to take in new territory, territory that is heavily R. This outright endangers and probably kills those in the marginals: Cartwright, Lamb, and Wild. This also takes the competitive PA-10 off the table once more.

In summary, just cause the D areas gained in pop doesn't mean it automatically translates to greater electoral prospects.

One good thing could be that Alleghany did pretty well and outperformed expectations on the most recent census meaning we could get a bluer PA-17, or at least, it's unlikely to get significantly redder.

Unless Alleghany gained a sh**t ton of people, it won't matter at all. Fundamentally, the seats have to greatly expand, including the Pittsburgh seat. For the Pittsburgh seat, the only territory it can really take is the blue suburbs that are currently in PA-17. For PA-17, the only territory it can take is the super R territory in Butler and Lawrence.

[Zaybay]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-draft-pa-congressional-map-could-boost-the-philly-democrat-helping-draw-it-e2-80-94-but-hurt-his-party/ar-AAREIPv?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Street criticized those in the party who want to split Pittsburgh to draw two safe Democratic seats. Street said that would lower the chances that a progressive like state Rep. Summer Lee — the first Black woman elected to the legislature from Western Pennsylvania who is now running for Congress — could win a congressional seat.

“Black women, we say, are the backbone of the Democratic Party,” Street said. But some Democrats, he said, “want me to make changes to a district in a way to disempower the most successful Black female politician in the history of Western Pennsylvania. They want me to disempower her.”

Honestly this is one of the dumbest things I've heard. Firstly pairing downtown Pitts with redder suburbs around it would actually increase the chances of a progressive black Dem winning a primary because more suburban white voters would vote in the R primary. Secondly if you can't win a Biden + 20 seat that means you have a serious issue. Also I don't think most Dems are saying to create 2 Biden + 15 seats that split Pittsburg down the middle, but rather to do 1 safe D seat and 1 narrow Biden seat. Surely Biden + 30 PA-15 has votes to give.

This feels like Maryland 2.0 where individual politician wants get in the way of doing for the "greater good of the party". I suspect this won't fly well with national Dems.

Ah, so they're redistricting?

To put it simply, the idea that redistricting is about the interests of the whole party or national party is woefully inaccurate. Most of it comes down to the arbitrary interests of the members, and the whims of random folks in the party apparatus, from the interests of the donors wanting to be in a certain district, to the interest of the chair looking out for their favorites, to the interests of the racial caucuses looking out for more or safer seats, etc.

And if the other maps passed so far from both party say anything, its that the state parties don't give a hoot on what the national party wants.

[Zaybay]

And if the other maps passed so far from both party say anything, its that the state parties don't give a hoot on what the national party wants.

I wouldn't go that far. I mean, Nevada Democrats cracked Hispanics three ways to get three Lean D seats, to the detriment of one of their incumbents and the prospect of a Hispanic-influence seat. North Carolina, Oregon and Illinois all went pretty hard and New Mexico and Tennessee look like they will as well, which again can't really be explained by incumbent protection like Maryland, Ohio, Texas, or Florida. Partisan advantage is not the be all end all – we can see that in Maryland and Florida especially – but it's definitely playing a larger role than it did in 2010, and I'd be pretty surprised if the PA Democrats allow an own goal like this.

But these aren't examples of the national party stepping in. These are examples of the state parties and members having their own interests that happen to line up with partisan interests. For example, the NV Dems are on the record that Lee and Horsford wanted safer seats, and Titus was "fine" (she got overpowered by everyone else and had to take the L) with losing some of her status as an untouchable incumbent. DeFazio argued strongly for the gerrymander behind the curtain because he wanted his successor to be a Democrat, and said successor just so happens to likely be the rather influential Val Hoyle.

TN, IL and NC are good examples of when partisan maximization and arbitrary interests of the members happen to line up rather well, though in the case of TN we've still got to wait and see, since the incumbents have been rather squeamish to the idea. In IL, carving out seats didn't bother any of the D incumbents, and influential D politicians in those seat regions argued strongly for their configurations. When it came to where the Ds bordered each other, it was rather chaotic, and the interests of two incumbents came to a head rather dramatically. With NC, one of the seats was drawn specifically for one of the drawers to run for, before Cawthorn surprisingly cut him off.

Point being, none of these moves were because the party took orders from the national establishment or were being virtuous and thinking about the big picture. Again, they don't give a hoot about what they want. They care about what they themselves want. Sometimes that means something along the lines of a partisan gerrymander, sometimes that means incumbent protection, sometimes that can mean clean maps, sometimes it can mean truly disgusting maps, and sometimes it can mean truly suboptimal, infuriating maps that reward certain power players.