IA State Fair kernel poll

[Zaybay]

Welp, pack it up guys, the kernels have spoken.

[Zaybay]

The Kernels have spoken....again.

[Zaybay]

It's a bit of a joke that this thread is on the polling board in the first place, but it's downright hilarious that it has generated well over one hundred responses as of this post.

Moreover, this is the third-most viewed topic of this child board and it's likely to become the second-most one within a few hours.
The reason for that is on the dice: The kernel poll uses a higher sample size than all those "reputable" pollsters.

What kind of natural materials would be used to fill the jars, by the way, if the State Fair poll would be conducted in Idaho or Wisconsin? Or Texas?

Each person can put in a pipette's worth of oil into a jar for the candidate they support.

[Zaybay]

While its already kinda been explained why this poll shouldnt be taken earnestly, it still seems the results are being applied in a rather serious matter. There is a reason this poll labels itself as 'non-scientific', and thats because of the sample. There are numerous problems with the one the pol uses, such as the fact that:

1. Children can vote.
2. We dont know the demographics of whose voting.
3. The sample is biased to whatever people are likely to go to the fair in the first place.
4. The participants can see who other people are voting for, and so can be exposed to outside psychological factors(I.E a Herding Effect)
5. We dont know whos actually voting, demographically speaking.
6. There is no weighing at all to possibly make up for any problems in the sample.
7. The sample likely isnt geographically distributed evenly, which is very important in this election since delegates will be rewarded by CD.
8. The sample is likely biased in favor of people who live in the Des Moines Metro.

It also should be noted that while the fair has been close to the actual result in a couple of occasions, the fair's being mentioned by posters arent really equivalent to the 2019 State Fair. If you want an equivalent, you should be looking at the 2015 State Fair, which had these results:

2015
Among Democratic Candidates:
Hillary Clinton: 58%
Bernie Sanders: 34%
Martin O'Malley: 6%
Jim Webb & Lincoln Chafee both came in at 1%.

Among Republican Candidates:
Donald Trump: 31%
Ben Carson: 21%
Carly Fiorina: 8%
Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, & Mike Huckabee: 6% each
Ted Cruz: 5%
Scott Walker: 4%
John Kasich, Rand Paul, & Chris Christie: 2% each
Rick Perry & Rick Santorum: 1% each
Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, & George Pataki: <1%

This poll should be taken for what it is; a fun activity for Iowans at a state fair and something interesting for us to look at in a rather boring month politics-wise. This poll should not, however, be taken as something serious to consider for the actual caucus, nor as a predictor for it.