Whose Districts are most likely to disappear?

[Zaybay]

Im just going to post this here so we all are on the same page on the possible losses:


The states facing a possible loss are
- RI
- NY (possibly 2)
- PA
- WV
- OH
- MI
- IL
- AL
- MN (possibly)
- CA (possibly)

[Zaybay]

Alright, so Im going to take a swing at this.

RI: For this one, its going to be an AL-District, a battle between Cicilline and Langevin. I would think Cicilline would win this battle, but it would be a tough call.

NY: Due to the D trifecta, its highly likely the map in NY will bare no resemblance to the current one. But for cut districts, the first one would have to be from upstate. Bridisni is incredibly unlucky, considering his district is both in the prime location to be cut, and has faced the Deepest decline in population. After him, the next district would also have to be Upstate, with the most likely candidate being the 24th district, containing Katko, due to a similar large decrease in population, optimal positioning, and the fact that this would dislodge the popular incumbent. Of course, they could also go for Delgado's seat, but I see this as more likely being drawn closer to NY than it being gotten rid of entirely.

PA: For this state, the map will either be drawn by the courts, or by a compromise between Dems and Reps. There are two targets for deletion in this map, both benefiting one of the parties. PA-12 has experienced heavy population decline, and its very possible that its cut up, especially considering that there will be a newbie in that seat. However, Dems may object to this, as such a lost seat would mean that Cartwright may finally be defeated. The other option would be getting rid of PA-15. This is district has actually lost the most population out of all of them, and such a deletion would make sense. This move, however, benefits the Dems more, as this would just shore up the currently held GOP seats, and not effect any of their vulnerable incumbents. Of course, this would put the Erie-based seat off the playing field, however.

WV: WV-02, this one needs no explanation.

OH: This one is rather tricky. Unless the Dems win control of the State Supreme Court(which would require them to take two seats in the 2020 election, unlikely but possible), the "Commission" would be run by the Republicans. This would mean a good amount of the gerrymandering they had done in 2010 may be sustained. The only problem for Republicans is Columbus. While the entire state has been declining in population, Columbus OH has been experiencing explosive growth, 10%. This has gotten to the point that the Ds may gain a seat in the Columbus area. But anyway, back to the lost seat, there are three possibilities. OH-13, OH-6, and OH-02. For OH-13, its one of the only D districts in the state, but its lost so much population that its now possible to remove the seat entirely. This would be the most partisan choice, but it may have some repercussions in the creation of more tossup/D seats elsewhere. For OH-06, this seat has lost the most pop, and the Rs may see it as the optimal seat to split, reinforcing the rest of the congressional. OH-02 is a similar story, its lost a lot of people, and getting rid of it reinforces the R gerry. But with how OH is, I cannot be confident on any of this.

MI: This state will be using a non-partisan redistricting commission come 2022, but one that will take partisanship into account. Funny enough, whats most likely is the elimination of MI-05, which is a D seat containing Flint, while the current D delegation is shored up, and a tossup seat is made in the South West, possibly more.

IL: If you think the Ds are losing any ground in IL from this, even at the peak they are currently on, Mike Madigan has a thing or two to say about that. Due to the decline happening outside Chicagoland, the seat lost will, most likely, either be IL-13 or IL-12. Now, why these specific seats? Because getting rid of one of them allows the drawing of a D seat downstate, basically, getting rid of 1 GOP seat while flipping another. The seats the Ds captured in 2018 will likely be shored up as well, with the Rs being confined in 3 seats.

AL: This is really just a popularity game, which I would guess Roby would lose, especially since her seat is prime for cutting up.

MN: If a seat is deleted, it would likely be MN-07 being combined with another seat, to make an R vote sink of sorts. MN-01 is the likely candidate.

CA: Im not going to guess which seat out of the 55 are going to be cut, but I can tell you the area. Northern CA. It would also most likely be a D seat, though such a cut may have repercussions on the Rs left in the state.

[Zaybay]

Zaybay, that's a great summary.

I have questions about a couple of suggestions you made, and they're actually the same question, re: NY-24 and MI-5. Are you imagining Onondaga County and/or Syracuse would be cut in two? I don't see how you avoid having an Onondaga County seat, and thus a Katko seat, especially if NY-22 is already divided up to its east.

Similarly, Gennessee County MI has more than 50% of the population of a Congressional District. This is a problem similar to the Tim Ryan's district problem - can you really get rid of that district without its population center "taking over" whatever district it's combined with? Do you think that they'd pair Flint with Lansing for a revised MI-8? I think a Flint-based legislator wins no matter what. 

For NY, its mostly due to D partisanship that NY-24 is cut up. And its for a rather specific reason, its to get rid of 2 R incumbents with one stone. I believe that, to maximize their seat count, the Ds would draw Katko's base of Syracuse into NY-21, repositioning it to be more D and along the Canadian border. To be honest, I had a hard time figuring out which 2nd seat would be cut up, and thats the best I can come up with.

Its also possible, though not likely, that the second seat deleted is a Long Island seat, but the area has not seen such a decline in population that it would become the area of deletion.

For MI, it would, at first, be a Tim Ryan problem, due to how D Flint is. But the problem is that this area is trending R rapidly, and bleeding profusely. Its a seat that would make its successors tossups for 1 or 2 cycles before becoming R seats.

Of course, these are just my takes on the situation.