Mission 2022.

[Zaybay]

I feel that I should just establish that the Ds can pick up the 4 seats needed to take the senate in 2020, but it seems that the question is whether the Ds can pull a 2018, losing house seats but making gains in the senate. And the question really is, what happens after 2020? Does WI, MI, and PA swing hard D? Well, WI and PA may give Ds their senate seat. Does the D flip GA and NC? Well, those seats might become competitive. Does Grassley retire? That could be on the map, then.

The Ds really have no where to go, but up. Their vulnerable list consists of:
-NH
-......CO, I guess?

So it is possible that the Ds gain in the senate come 2022. But it should be noted that that is 4 years from now, so its ill-advised to make a prediction this far out.

[Zaybay]

Democrats are going to struggle in the senate for a while I Think. Politics is partisan, polarized and nationalized. And in a neutral Environment Republicans lead in states about 30-20 or so. Now, to be fair, I don't Think we have a neutral Environment with Trump. But even so it seems tough.

If you assume a uniform swing from 2016 and a D+5 environment Republicans still lead 26-24, so 52-48 in the senate.

You can obviously play around with this a bit and there are a lot of other factors that come into play but just in general Democrats need a lot of things to break their way to have any kind of shot at the senate.

For now, yes, but you are going off the 2016 result. Its possible that a neutral environment includes MI, PA, and WI, meaning the divide is actually 23-27. And that isnt even factoring in AZ, GA, and other states that might make the transition. Then again, the Ds also have states that could leave the coalition, such as NH, and ME.

[Zaybay]

Forget it, Cornyn isn't Cruz

Right, Cornyn is even easier to take out.

[Zaybay]

Forget it, Cornyn isn't Cruz

Right, Cornyn is even easier to take out.

Disagree. Ted Cruz has the popularity of measles.

Incorrect. Ted Cruz, while polarizing, has had a better approval than Cornyn in almost every TX poll done, with only MC being the outlier.
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/john-cornyn-approval-june-2018
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I don’t get why people think Cornyn and Peters are unbeatable.

I feel that either could easily become the Nelson of 2020. A strong candidate challenges them, they either campaign poorly or even half asleep, polls show them up, and then, well, they go the way of Nelson.