Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results) (user search)
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  Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)  (Read 170972 times)
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,065
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« on: November 28, 2018, 12:10:32 PM »

The D is probably favored in that case, due to the usual D overpreformance in specials.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,065
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2018, 05:08:58 PM »


Cool, so we should have another election.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,065
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2019, 07:58:27 PM »

Come on Friedenberg, did that Trump rally really boost Keller or is this just a solid R county.

This is the definition of Solid R territory, sitting at R+17. We would be lucky to get 40% of the vote.
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,065
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2019, 10:04:44 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2019, 10:17:32 PM by Zaybay »

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Surprised that you semi-remember that(I believe I only said there would be a large swing towards the Ds in rurals compared to 2016, which there were, including in this district), though at this point the evidence is pretty obvious that, while there was a sort-of dead cat bounce in rurals for the Democrats, its neither noticeable nor really important when compared with the more urban metro trends.

Edit: Also, if you want to compare to 2016, the rurals swung more D than the Urban metro. Wink
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Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,065
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2019, 09:44:18 AM »

If anyone is curious, here are some post-election maps of the two races last night:





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