Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Zaybay]

Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/amysrosenberg/status/1060272129277652992

11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate!

Nice!

[Zaybay]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down.

Nope, RCV comes to save the day.

[Zaybay]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

Based on previous election results and the primary, they will lean D.

[Zaybay]

Wow, the lady screaming Gun Control that everyone thought was a weak candidate won? How surprising, its almost like she had more issues and more dimensions than Atlas thought she did. I mean, how could she win, she wasnt some moderate, centrist like Ossoff! Thats who we need for these districts, people who can win seats easily for the D party, like Jeff Van Drew! /s

[Zaybay]

Why toss-up in NJ-03?

Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07?

I think they already called that.

[Zaybay]

Why toss-up in NJ-03?

Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07?

I think they already called that.

None of NYT, CNN or Politico has GA-07 called.

FiveThirtyEight called it already.

[Zaybay]

yeah, looking at the votes, its so concentrated and so odd that I doubt its a ballot problem. Looks like things will get real heated in FL.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1060703585552474113

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1060705247700623360

If that's true, good news for Scott

I seriously have no idea where you are getting this. All they said was that they finished counting the ballots and were reviewing them, which was expected.

[Zaybay]

Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes

If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson.

Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old.

lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning
Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win.

Seriously, they did the math. There are 23K votes that may have been miscounted, ones that can only be counted in a hand by hand recount. There is clearly a path, it just needs this to be a machine error, and not a purposeful one(it is more likely a machine error, as absentees and mail in ballots had the same problem).

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060953282439393280

New England is Blue once more!

[Zaybay]

If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas.

Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal.

[Zaybay]

If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas.

Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal.

Sinema wants to have a word with you.

AZ has a WV problem with registration. While crossover appeal was definitely a factor, as it as in many other races, the enthusiasm that each party had going in was the defining factor for many races.

With polarization on the rise, and tribalism increasing, enthusiasm will become the main factor to campaign.

[Zaybay]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

No one is shocked you think this.

[Zaybay]

I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird?

[Zaybay]

wait, this was the pro-McSally batch. Well, looks like the SoS is ours!

[Zaybay]

I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.

[Zaybay]

More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes.

Have late ballots been breaking towards Thurmond?

[Zaybay]

Speaker Pelosi? Not so fast!

https://twitter.com/jennfranconews/status/1062090535559548929

I kinda knew this would happen.

So its not going to pass, is what it says. Rule Change doesnt have the votes.

[Zaybay]

I just find this to be truly surprising:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062541533835026432

[Zaybay]

I just find this to be truly surprising:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062541533835026432

Not really as Montana was not competitive in 2016.

They had a competitive governorship election.

Anyway, I just find this rather interesting a a rather good sign for the senate seat in 2020.