Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Zaybay]

Alright, Ill take a stab at this. Ill only talk about the states losing a CD though.




-First up, AL. Due to the VRA, the Democratic seat in the Black Belt will likely stay in place, so it will be a Republican who is cut. The Black Belt has been steady losing population, so its likely that the district being sacrificed would have enough AA Democrats to keep the seat afloat. The GOP can take two different approaches. They can sacrifice AL-02 to give the Dems Birmingham, or they can sacrifice AL-06, and give Dems the entire Black Belt. I would go with AL-06 being on the chopping block, so you can say goodbye to Gary Palmer.

-Next up, IL. Now, IL will probably be gerrymandered to hell and back by Madigan and his crew, so its hard to say which seat gets the axe. IL-06 and IL-14 would be made a part of the Democratic Chicago block, while the D leaning areas left in downstate would be merged together to form a district. This would leave around 4 districts to the Rs, but if Madigan really takes out the pen, it could go down to 3.

-MI is gonna be a big one. The redistricting commission being put into the state will be rather effective, and the map will likely be completely different compared to the current one. Unlike in IL, the seats in Detroit are likely to branch out, not compact inward, due to Detroit's decline. More seats would be scrunched up in the Southwest and Southeast, as the North of the state continues to become desolate. The commission would likely find a 7R-6D map.

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.

-OH, even with the commission and possible D governor, will still be rather favorable to Rs. The seat lost would have to be a central OH district in the rurals, as the Ds are already in vote sink districts. The city of Cinncinatti would finally have a voice, as the seat will have to be redrawn to, at the very least, a neutral district. It would still be a mess, however.

-PA will be interesting, and really depends on how well the Ds do in the state legislature. In the most R favored scenario, the Ds keep the governorship, the Rs lose the supermajorities. This would likely mean the cut district is in the center of the state. However, PA-17 would probably absorb a lot of of R turf, making it hard for even Lamb to win, so a rather neutral move.

In the moderate to best case scenario, Lamb's seat would stay at least neutral, and the Rs would still lose a seat in the center.

-RI is a battle to the death.

-WV will be interesting. There is a chance that the Ds take the governorship and, funnily enough, a state chamber in 2020. In the best R case scenario, WV would be split on a latitude, not a longitude, which would eliminate the D base in WV-03. In the D best case, the Ds would force a longitude split, with the 3rd taking as much D leaning land as possible to at least maintain a possible seat pickup.


Thats what I got so far.

[Zaybay]

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.

The area from Clay County northwards is actually the most Dem friendly part of MN-07. A successor of MN-08 that includes this area, but excludes Morrison County and Wadena County, would actually be slightly more Dem friendly than the old MN-08.

Interesting, I had no idea. I still think it would get more red, due to the fact that the rurals have been trending R, but its highly possible that it stays a winnable seat.

[Zaybay]

I'm excited to see what happens for CA. The commission won't pay attention to incumbency or PVI.

What does the CA commission base its congressional maps off of then?

[Zaybay]

I dont get why you guys think that will even be passed into law for MA. Its rather bare-bones to begin with, and it hasnt even been debated on.

And, as other posters have mentioned, you would have to purposely draw a map based on only PVI and forgo every other criteria, like geography, and would have to draw a bunch of D voter sinks to make it possible.

If the commission is passed, a large if and probably not going to happen, then you would likely see one competitive seat, Keating's.

[Zaybay]

A 5-2 Dem map in MN is pretty easy to make. But if you refuse to split Minneapolis/St. Paul, then you will inevitably end up with at least 1 or 2 of the Dem seats being fairly weak (D+2 or D+3 or so).

If the Dems choose not to split the Twin Cities, what would you see as the most D friendly map possible?