FL-GOV: Gillum + 1 (Mason-Dixon)

[Zaybay]

Gillum 45
DeSantis 44
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/02/kavanaugh-effect-gillum-clings-to-1-point-lead-over-desantis-636720
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-36ec-d20d-a57f-b6fc49a10002

Party ID

D 38
R 37
I 25

Mason-Dixon Polling Director Brad Coker said typically more GOP Voters Vote in Midterms than D's.

That's suggesting to me that all the other Polls who had Gillum between 3-6 Points have been oversampling Democrats.

Yeah, Im pretty sure every single pollster that has polled the state has been wrong, while Mason has been correct. Really plausible.

Just sounds like they admitted to oversampling Rs.

[Zaybay]

The polls show this race tightening. As of now it's hard to say if it's just random noise, Gillum's post primary bounce deflating, the Kavanaugh stuff boosting the GOP, DeSantis's gaffes finally falling into the background, or some combination of the above. Time will tell I guess.

Anyway, I think Atlas overcorrected and went from underestimating Dem chances here to overestimating them, lol. Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man become governor of Florida without a fight.

100% agreed. atlas has been acting as if gillium was already guaranteed a double digit landslide. its florida for crying out loud, its nearly always going to be close

Florida has only had two close statewide elections from 2000-2018. The two being Rick Scott's campaigns. Usually, Dems and Reps win FL with large margins.


Anyway, it really is Atlas to take 1 poll and treating it as gospel. Seriously, we have a multitude of polls and averages to work off of here, and now people are overanalyzing one poll that gives a lackluster result. That is appropriate for ND and house races, not for FL.