MN-08: Joe Radinovich vs. Pete Stauber

[Zaybay]

TBH, Im not worried about Lee's "progressive values" making this seat R cause shes "unelectable", because thats dumb, especially since the previous incumbent was just as progressive.

No, Im worried about what will actually matter, her mining stance, and her fundraising.

This is a mining district, and going against what many do as a livelihood is highly risky, almost as risky as Manchin saying he hates coal. Money is also something we need in this race and she doesnt have it.

Then again, she does have some things working in her favor. Her name Rec is rather high, as she is a famous news anchor in the area. The statewide election is likely to create a large D wave for her, along with the actual D wave. The R candidate is not the greatest, as well, and the seat is still rather D downballot.

If she wins, Ill put this as tilt-D, but she could easily win this. I still remember when people were putting Balter at likely R because she was considered a weak candidate, and Newman made the race DOA.

Thats the Zaybay analysis!

[Zaybay]

Radinovich should win, he's a way better candidate than Nolan, and I bet every Democrat running for statewide office carries this district.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!! Ellison is not carrying MN 8th lmao.

I mean, its definitely possible. AGs usually do as good or better than the statewide ticket. It isnt hard to imagine that Ellison would carry the 8th thanks to the senators and Tim. And we dont even know if A. Ellison will still be in the ticket at that point. or B. This issue will be talked about in two months

[Zaybay]

Radinovich should win, he's a way better candidate than Nolan, and I bet every Democrat running for statewide office carries this district.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!! Ellison is not carrying MN 8th lmao.

I mean, its definitely possible. AGs usually do as good or better than the statewide ticket. It isnt hard to imagine that Ellison would carry the 8th thanks to the senators and Tim. And we dont even know if A. Ellison will still be in the ticket at that point. or B. This issue will be talked about in two months

You mean Lori Swanson does better than the statewide ticket. She’s been the only AG candidate for the past 3 elections, so equating her performance and generalizing it as all AG performance won’t work. There’s nothing special about the office that makes Democrats favoured to win it.

No, Im talking in general. In almost every state, the AG does as well or better than their party ticket. We saw it in VA, and in 2016.

[Zaybay]

Radinovich should win, he's a way better candidate than Nolan, and I bet every Democrat running for statewide office carries this district.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!! Ellison is not carrying MN 8th lmao.

I mean, its definitely possible. AGs usually do as good or better than the statewide ticket. It isnt hard to imagine that Ellison would carry the 8th thanks to the senators and Tim. And we dont even know if A. Ellison will still be in the ticket at that point. or B. This issue will be talked about in two months

You mean Lori Swanson does better than the statewide ticket. She’s been the only AG candidate for the past 3 elections, so equating her performance and generalizing it as all AG performance won’t work. There’s nothing special about the office that makes Democrats favoured to win it.

No, Im talking in general. In almost every state, the AG does as well or better than their party ticket. We saw it in VA, and in 2016.

Northam actually ran ahead of Mark Herring, the AG incumbent running for re-election.

yeah, he did just as well as the top ticket, no major difference. In that same race where Northam won by 9, the LT won by 5, and the AG won by 7, so in between the two top ticket members. AGs usually preform similarly or ahead of the top. there are few times in US history where the top won by a good margin and the AG suffered a loss.

[Zaybay]

Radinovich should win, he's a way better candidate than Nolan, and I bet every Democrat running for statewide office carries this district.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!! Ellison is not carrying MN 8th lmao.

I mean, its definitely possible. AGs usually do as good or better than the statewide ticket. It isnt hard to imagine that Ellison would carry the 8th thanks to the senators and Tim. And we dont even know if A. Ellison will still be in the ticket at that point. or B. This issue will be talked about in two months

You mean Lori Swanson does better than the statewide ticket. She’s been the only AG candidate for the past 3 elections, so equating her performance and generalizing it as all AG performance won’t work. There’s nothing special about the office that makes Democrats favoured to win it.

No, Im talking in general. In almost every state, the AG does as well or better than their party ticket. We saw it in VA, and in 2016.

Northam actually ran ahead of Mark Herring, the AG incumbent running for re-election.

yeah, he did just as well as the top ticket, no major difference. In that same race where Northam won by 9, the LT won by 5, and the AG won by 7, so in between the two top ticket members. AGs usually preform similarly or ahead of the top. there are few times in US history where the top won by a good margin and the AG suffered a loss.

2 points is often the difference between victory and defeat, so I think Northam measurably performed ahead of Herring, especially considering that Herring was the incumbent and Northam was not. Lesser row offices can easily fall behind the top of the ticket, just look at Minnesota in 2014. Secretary of State Steve Simon barely won despite Dayton winning somewhat comfortably.

My point is that the AG usually runs similar to the top of the ticket, which it the senators, governor and Lt. Herring running two points behind Northam and two points ahead of the Lt. shows that he ran similarly to the top of the ticket, in fact, he was the average of the two. If he ran, say, 5 points behind Northam, then there would be a problem.

While smaller offices such as the secretary of state, treasurer, and land commissions officer can fall behind the ticket, the AG has rarely done so. Most over-preform or preform similarly to the top ticket. If Walz is winning by 10 points, then I dont expect Ellison to somehow lose the race, but if the top is close, say 1-2 points, then the AG is a tossup.