KY-GOV 2019: Is Matt Bevin in big trouble?

[Zaybay]

Matt Bevin is likely to lose at this point. He has truly f%#*ed up. KY has amazing D down ballot strength(the state house and state senate only flipped in 2016), and the state is rather economically left. Bevin slashing medicare and medicaid in a state that semi-relies on it is a recipe for defeat.

Not sure who to support in the D primary. Grimes is pretty cool, but is a bit too business friendly for me, and Beshear....I have no idea what he thinks on anything. I know some people here may not like their stances on guns or other social issues, its KY, we have to take what we can get.

[Zaybay]

Ugh, are we really going to have to go through another few years of Democrats pretending they have a shot at beating Mitch McConnell?

I guess Bevin easily winning re-election will dispel with that fiction though.

Ah yes, Matt Bevin the famous tactician. He understands the complete drought of downballot democratic support, the overwhelmingly republican national environment, the lack of anyone who could be remotely angry at his antics over Medicaid and the teachers strikes, the extremely weak democratic bench with no row officers who could challenge him, and most crucially garnering one of the highest approval ratings in the country.


In fact, he's such a strong candidate that he'll win Louisville by 20 points, Lexington by 50 points, and anyone who dislikes him in rural areas will be immediately executed.


Anyone who doesn't see this is a complete imbecile, a ing moron. I applaud you for your unbiased, clearheaded analysis of the situation.

Bevin sucks, but he also sucked in 2015, and that didn't stop him from curbstomping Jack Conway (who everyone here thought would win easily.)

This state is extremely hostile to any Democrat now. Beshear and Grimes only won by the skin of their teeth to begin with. Yeah, Dems will probably do well in the Louisville and Lexington areas. That earned Jim Gray a 14 point loss. Sounds about right.

2014,2015, and 2016 were hard times for the KY Ds. This was at the end of the Obama era, and he had some of his weakest approvals at this point. But this is the Trump era, and KY special elections have shown a strong D trend. Its also important to note that unpopular govs can drag on a state party, just ask MO and CT.
Environment is one of the most important factors in elections and one that many are willing to brush aside and forget about. The environment back then was anti-Obama, Democratic Establishment, Coastal Elite. Now its anti-Trump.

[Zaybay]

The environment overall is anti-Trump, but his approval rating is still high in Kentucky. So I definitely wouldn't count on any kind of anti-Trump tide carrying a Democrat to victory there.

As for McConnell, he won by a comfortable margin even when there was an incumbent Republican president with a -30 approval rating in the state per the 2008 exit poll. And this was when his opponent was dominating in Appalachia too, which will obviously never happen now. So...good luck with that one.

By your logic, both Richard Ojeda and Manchin are screwed because Trump has high approval there, so the wave will not hit the state of WV. The thing with elections is that a small group of enthused voters can beat a large group of apathetic voters with ease. Ill take the 2010 senate race in MA as an examplar:

MA base of Rs is around 35%
MA base of Ds is around 55%
MA base of Indie is around 10%

If all groups come out, and Indie's side with the Ds, we get 65-35, the result in 2016.

But lets say the Rs are energized and the Ds are apathetic, the D share of the pie goes down and the R increases, so now the race is around 55-45.
Now, since Indies were against the D party at the time, we switch them over, and voila! The Rs have won in one of the most D states in the Union.

Now that was very simplistic, but it displays an important note. Enthusiasm matters. If Trump has an approval of 62/34 as provided by the MC, and the 34s come out in force, then the candidate only needs to peel off a couple Trump lovers to get to the magic 50%. This happened in PA-18, when Lamb got huge turnout in the Allegheny suburbs, and was able to peel off enough voters for a victory.

And to your note about his 2008 performance, its important to note that Mitch Mcconnell, before the 2008 election, won by large margins, 55-45 in the 1990s, and 65-35 in the 2000s. That election is the same level as seeing Ted Kennedy win 53-47, it should not have happened. And that was when he was semi-popular, now he is the senate leader, hated by conservatives, moderates, and liberals. I actually expect him to retire in 2020, cause I doubt he would want to go through a tough election again.

[Zaybay]

By your logic, both Richard Ojeda and Manchin are screwed because Trump has high approval there

I see you're new here. Trust me, you don't want to get me started on WV, LOL.

You make good points on the enthusiasm gap, but there is no reason at this point to believe that 2019/2020 will be as good of a year for Dems as 2018 is shaping up to be. Especially 2020, where Trump will be at the top of the ticket and will be winning KY by at least 20 points even if he's getting BTFO nationally. So any enthusiasm gap will be far less relevant. Republicans will turn out for Trump and check their ballot for McConnell in the process, even though he's toxic. He was also toxic in 2014, but the wave and Kentucky's intense partisanship gave him a landslide re-election. He might not have the wave in 2020, but he'll certainly still have the latter, along with Trump's help.

I doubt he retires. The turtle is already plotting about how to eviscerate anyone that runs against him like he did to Bevin and Grimes.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/15/mitch-mcconnell-2020-reelection-campaign-647081

Oh yeah, you still dont believe in the glory of Ojeda. Maybe we will convert you, some day.

Also, its incredibly likely 2019 will be a great year for Dems. It has everything going for them, just like in 2017, with Virginia and Alabama. 2020 will definitely be a fight, unless the economy crashes, then its another D wave year, but the math still checks out here. Why is it that the Dems are super overexposed in 2018? Its because they won in 2012. 2012 was a presidential year, a largely neutral year with a slight D edge. IN, ND, MT, MO should not have elected Dems, but they did(I know about the scandals, but that still doesnt explain 1/2). This is because of 2 factors
1. Downballot differences
2. Personal appeal

Voters have different preferences depending on what the post is. Lets take MA, for example. Voters here are highly Liberal, and see the gov as a friend, not a foe. This leads to a D vote in the national. But go downballot and you see a shift. In state politics, many of the suburbanites that constitute the core of the D party here hate high taxes and dont want overreach by the legislature. This leads to an R vote for governor. As much as news media wants you to believe, ticketsplitting is not dead, and "the most partisan election ever", 2016, had WV and MT elect Dem Governors, one an incumbent, the other in an open election. Many states like KY have a strong Dem tradition down ballot, and elect Dem governors and dem legislators all the time. The KY state house and state senate only flipped in 2016, and before Matt Bevin was Steve Beshear.

Candidate quality makes a big difference in elections. This is why Red-state Dems keep getting elected, and why Ojeda is going to win in WV-03. They are likable, hard working, and generally in tune with the state, or at least have the appearance of. In KY, Mitch McConnell has the opposite of canidate quality, hes terrible. He has no appeal, and contrasts the states poorer populace, along with no charisma. Hes a technocrat, he has skills that are useful in politics, but he just isnt the person to deliver them. He has money, sure, but its been shown that Dems can out raise Rs if motivated enough, and whats more motivating than taking out Mitch.
I think its also important to mention the differences in the Mitch in each election
2008: Senator Mitch, been there a while, not that popular though
2014: Leader Mitch, fighting those Democrats to the T, may be a bit unpopular, but hell, hes saving us from that Obamacare
2020: Mitch, roadblock to Trump, cant pass anything, looks like a turtle, hes unpopular, the other guy is pretty good, ill vote that guy, f&^k Mitch, Trump though, hes pretty good.