2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Zaybay]

Virginia Generic Congressional Ballot (Quinnipiac):

51% Democratic
40% Republican

Motivation to Vote: More - Less - Same
Democrats: 57 - 4 - 39
Republicans: 39 - 4 - 57

Source

Are there other Virginia seats that could flip with numbers like these?

If these numbers are true, then the Democrats would definitely flip more seats. The GOP has a dummymander in VA, not meant to resist such high Democratic numbers. I could see VA-2, VA-5, and VA-7 being targeted by the Dems extensively, though these seats have stronger incumbents, or in VA-5's case, a large GOP PVI.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1011666202580672512

Whats with the weird 3 states only polls?

Anyway, my predictions

Sinema +9, Scott +2, Brown +13

[Zaybay]

Why is the TX-27 special election, which is already this Saturday, such a sleeper race ?

It's not all too Republican and the field is wide.

And no poll so far.

The problem is that the district has nothing in the favor of the Dems. It's ineleastic, has no Dem DNA, and has a high PVI in favor of the Reps. This could become similar to the Arizona race, but so far, it appears to be just out of the Democratic reach

[Zaybay]

Dems up in all three Senate Races, per Marist/NBC poll.

Sinema +11

Nelson +4

Brown +13

and the GCB was also released for the states

Arizona: Dems +7

Florida: Dems +6

Ohio: Dems +4

[Zaybay]

here are the writeups for each one

Arizona:http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_AZ_June%202018.pdf

Florida:http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_FL_June%202018.pdf

Ohio:http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/OHPolls/OH180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_OH_June%202018.pdf

[Zaybay]

Dems up in all three Senate Races, per Marist/NBC poll.

Sinema +11

Nelson +4

Brown +13

and the GCB was also released for the states

Arizona: Dems +7

Florida: Dems +6

Ohio: Dems +4

A lot of interesting information in this
1. The GCB in Florida is positive for the Democrats, which hasn't been the case for more than 10 years
2. Arizona appears to be going the way of Virginia or Colorado, expect it to be a tossup or tilt D state in 2020
3.Nelson is keeping the race close, even with the money Rick Scott is throwing at him
4. Renacci will be trianged, Brown is now just as unbeatable as Dean Heller
5. Ohio has the lowest GCB in comparison, perhaps the state is keeping its tilt R heritage?
6. I think Doug Ducey is in much more trouble than we thought, considering another poll came out recently pinning his approval at an incredible low 31% to 39% disapproval

[Zaybay]

It appears NBC pulled the polls off the net... which means somebody leaked them as they were due at 5:00.

Unfortunatly, it appears the poll was leaked, and now its been taken down. Gonna have to wait till 5 to get the writeups again.