IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

This won't make a lick of difference. Donnelly's own brother profited from shipping jobs to Mexico and Donnelly owned shares in that same company. Any attack on Braun will be answered with that so it'll have a net neutral impact. Donnelly is still toast and this doesn't change anything.

Have there been any recent polls from Indiana? I haven't seen any posted here since the one immediately after the primary, that showed Braun with a 1 pt. lead. And what leads you to believe that Donnelly is DOA? At best, I thought this race was a tossup.

there hasnt been any recent polling of the race since the primary, and that poll was done by Gravis. IN and ND have archaic polling laws that make it expensive and worthless, which is why those two states always have terrible polling and terrible results. Heitkamp overpreformed the polls by 7 points, not because she was an excellent candidate, but because the polling in ND was incredibly terrible.

There is currently no way to tell how both races are going, but saying that Donelly is DOA is ridiculous. This information about Braun's company is incredibly useful, and works well to disengage Braun's major attack, the "Mexico Joe" line.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

This won't make a lick of difference. Donnelly's own brother profited from shipping jobs to Mexico and Donnelly owned shares in that same company. Any attack on Braun will be answered with that so it'll have a net neutral impact. Donnelly is still toast and this doesn't change anything.

Have there been any recent polls from Indiana? I haven't seen any posted here since the one immediately after the primary, that showed Braun with a 1 pt. lead. And what leads you to believe that Donnelly is DOA? At best, I thought this race was a tossup.

there hasnt been any recent polling of the race since the primary, and that poll was done by Gravis. IN and ND have archaic polling laws that make it expensive and worthless, which is why those two states always have terrible polling and terrible results. Heitkamp overpreformed the polls by 7 points, not because she was an excellent candidate, but because the polling in ND was incredibly terrible.

There is currently no way to tell how both races are going, but saying that Donelly is DOA is ridiculous. This information about Braun's company is incredibly useful, and works well to disengage Braun's major attack, the "Mexico Joe" line.

Was the GOP really too dumb to say Mexico Josè?

Yep, heres the ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKbycsMb-f8

[Zaybay]

Well it’s kind of a poll but Politico has an article on the race and both sides internals have that race “essentially tied”. So nothing seems to have changed from Brain +1 https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/13/joe-donnelly-indiana-senate-midterms-2018-772506

well, I guess thats something, but if the race is tied at this moment in the cycle, then Donelly is favored to win reelection.

[Zaybay]

The poll with Joe+12 is a datapoint, but we shouldnt take it seriously. There are soooo many problems with it.

[Zaybay]

I think Mike Braun was Joe Donnelly's worst-case scenario. His "outsider businessman" persona seems to be very popular among Republican voters lately, and he has a lot of money to spend.

In addition, state AG Curtis Hill is trying to cancel those new early voting sites from opening in Marion County. If he is successful, that only hurts Donnelly's chances.

there is a downside to Braun, however, and that is his own strength. He is an unknown, a candidate nobody knows in the state. He has to spend a lot to boost his name rec. And to top that off, he is an unvetted candidate. With the other two, you knew what problems they had, but Braun, its all unknown. Its already been found out that he shipped jobs oversees to China, and there could be much more.

Braun will either flame out, or win

[Zaybay]

Im going to be bold....and not announce an answer so I dont look stupid.

[Zaybay]

Finally we will have some polls, it's not from a garbage company right?

quite the opposite, its Marist, A pollster

[Zaybay]

JOE +6!!!!!!!!!!!!!

guessing your celebrating about this poll, huh?

[Zaybay]

For those who think that voting Nay will screw over Donnelly, I refer to the polling done by Pew Research that shows that Ds care more about the nomination, and the Trafalgar poll, which, while poor, does show that Donnelly preforms better when he votes Nay. And this was done BEFORE the Sexual Allegations.

[Zaybay]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

You are right, MT, Joe has secured D turnout and has even won a couple R moderates over.

tossup -> Lean D (no tilts!)

[Zaybay]

Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.

Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.

You are right, MT, Joe has secured D turnout and has even won a couple R moderates over.

tossup -> Lean D (no tilts!)

Absolutely wrong. The Kavernaugh Vote at least what Republicans are concerned is all about the BASE. Republicans lacking intensity & enthusiasm all year long so the Senate is giving something to cheer for especially Trump Voters.
Kavernaugh getting through will IMO most likely safe the Senate for the GOP.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/09/26/voter-enthusiasm-at-record-high-in-nationalized-midterm-environment/

The Republican Party is already at maximum enthusiasm, there is little to do to get more backers. As was mentioned, Donnelly voted for the same base that put him in, a coalition of strong Ds and R suburbanites. This was a rather smart move by Donnelly.

And, as I have mentioned before, we have polling showing Donnelly doing worse if he voted FOR K.

[Zaybay]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Perhaps they wear Orange avatars as well.

[Zaybay]

The biggest hacks on this forum tend to be the people with red or maroon avatars actually LOL

also, I think Donnelly is going down. Braun is getting more and more of the previously undecided voters.

Perhaps they wear Orange avatars as well.

Where is the all of the above option

Yeah, true, hacks come in all shapes and sizes.