South African General Election, 2019

[Republican Left]

Just a poster who has a few questions about South Africa's elections.

1) Does Cyril's victory strengthen the ANC's prospects? Does it kill DA and EFF's chances?

2) Do you think Maimane could help broaden and build up DA even if he doesn't win?

3) Was EFF's "win" back in the last election season a fluke? Will they end up like COPE which collapsed (and why did COPE collapse while EFF rose)?

4) How is South Africa doing?

Have a good week.

[Republican Left]

Just a poster who has a few questions about South Africa's elections.

1) Does Cyril's victory strengthen the ANC's prospects? Does it kill DA and EFF's chances?

2) Do you think Maimane could help broaden and build up DA even if he doesn't win?

3) Was EFF's "win" back in the last election season a fluke? Will they end up like COPE which collapsed (and why did COPE collapse while EFF rose)?

4) How is South Africa doing?

Have a good week.

1. If you asked me a few months ago, I would say he seriously strenghtened the ANC's chances. Now it seems like it was a honeymoon period, or as people say "Ramaphoria is fading". The cost of living is constantly going up and the economy is not doing well at all. Don't get me wrong: I'd still say ANC's chances are better with him than with Zuma (except in KZN), but if things don't improve soon the election is not going to be a cake walk for him.

2. Maimane has a big problem, and that is that he has this incredibly delicate balancing act to do. Every time he tries to say something with the hope of getting more black votes, he risks pissing some whites off. An example of that would be his remarks on Freedom Day about "white privilage". Lord did I see many angry comments over that one. Add to that the DA's problems in the Western Cape with the drought and the De Lille situation, and my bet right now is on DA doing worse in 2019 than they did in 2014.

3. EFF will in all likelyhood not end up like COPE. Because they have a distinct ideological identity and they are filling a void on the political spectrum. There is also nothing like the Lekota vs Shilowa feud; instead Malema is the leader and few would question that. However, EFF is not really growing either. They seem stuck around 6-8%. Maybe that's as big as that kind of party will ever get?

4. Not all that well, in my view. Unemployment, already alarmingly high, has grown this year. Racial tensions seem to be getting worse too, at least judging from social media. The fact that the ANC has started talking about amending the constitution to expropriate land without compensation also does not help matters.

Why did COPE collapse?

[Republican Left]

How did that party get any support from colors especially considering their main identity and history; additionally, aren't the DA the main party for colors (tbh, not really informed so I'm open to being given a quick lesson about this)?